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Meteorological forecasts and the pricing of weather derivatives

Author

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  • Ritter, Matthias
  • Mußhoff, Oliver
  • Odening, Martin

Abstract

In usual pricing approaches for weather derivatives, forward-looking information such as meteorological weather forecasts is not considered. Thus, important knowledge used by market participants is ignored in theory. By extending a standard model for the daily temperature, this paper allows the incorporation of meteorological forecasts in the framework of weather derivative pricing and is able to estimate the information gain compared to a benchmark model without meteorological forecasts. This approach is applied for temperature futures referring to New York, Minneapolis and Cincinnati with forecast data 13 days in advance. Despite this relatively short forecast horizon, the models using meteorological forecasts outperform the classical approach and more accurately forecast the market prices of the temperature futures traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Moreover, a concentration on the last two months or on days with actual trading improves the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ritter, Matthias & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2010. "Meteorological forecasts and the pricing of weather derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-043, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fred Espen Benth & Jurate Saltyte-Benth, 2005. "Stochastic Modelling of Temperature Variations with a View Towards Weather Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-85.
    2. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Wimmer, Maximilian, 2010. "The pricing of temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1360-1370, June.
    3. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
    4. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2012. "The Implied Market Price of Weather Risk," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 59-95, February.
    5. Melanie Cao & Jason Wei, 2004. "Weather derivatives valuation and market price of weather risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(11), pages 1065-1089, November.
    6. Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    7. Dorje Brody & Joanna Syroka & Mihail Zervos, 2002. "Dynamical pricing of weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 189-198.
    8. M. Davis, 2001. "Pricing weather derivatives by marginal value," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 305-308, March.
    9. Fred ESPEN Benth & Jurate saltyte Benth, 2007. "The volatility of temperature and pricing of weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 553-561.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-067 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Rui Zhou & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Jeffrey Pai, 2019. "Pricing temperature derivatives with a filtered historical simulation approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(15), pages 1462-1484, October.
    3. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
    4. López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall derivatives at the CME," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-005, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    5. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-005 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Ritter, Matthias, 2012. "Forecast based pricing of weather derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-027, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. Groll, Andreas & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Meyer-Brandis, Thilo, 2016. "A consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 112-126.
    8. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-006 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall futures at the CME," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4286-4298.
    10. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-027 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ritter, Matthias, 2012. "Can the market forecast the weather better than meteorologists?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-067, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    weather forecasting; weather risk; price forecasting; financial markets; temperature futures; CME;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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