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Simultaneous statistical inference in dynamic factor models

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  • Dickhaus, Thorsten

Abstract

Based on the theory of multiple statistical hypothesis testing, we elaborate simultaneous statistical inference methods in dynamic factor models. In particular, we employ structural properties of multivariate chi-squared distributions in order to construct critical regions for vectors of likelihood ratio statistics in such models. In this, we make use of the asymptotic distribution of the vector of test statistics for large sample sizes, assuming that the model is identified and model restrictions are testable. Examples of important multiple test problems in dynamic factor models demonstrate the relevance of the proposed methods for practical applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Dickhaus, Thorsten, 2012. "Simultaneous statistical inference in dynamic factor models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-033, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2012-033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic Factor Models," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 3, pages 25-40, Springer.
    2. Helmut Finner & Veronika Gontscharuk & Thorsten Dickhaus, 2012. "False Discovery Rate Control of Step-Up-Down Tests with Special Emphasis on the Asymptotically Optimal Rejection Curve," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 39(2), pages 382-397, June.
    3. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1319-1347, October.
    4. K. Jöreskog, 1969. "A general approach to confirmatory maximum likelihood factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 34(2), pages 183-202, June.
    5. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    6. Karlin, Samuel & Rinott, Yosef, 1980. "Classes of orderings of measures and related correlation inequalities. I. Multivariate totally positive distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 467-498, December.
    7. Park, Byeong U. & Mammen, Enno & Härdle, Wolfgang & Borak, Szymon, 2009. "Time Series Modelling With Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 284-298.
    8. Alessio Farcomeni, 2009. "Generalized Augmentation to Control the False Discovery Exceedance in Multiple Testing," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(3), pages 501-517, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dickhaus, Thorsten & Sirotko-Sibirskaya, Natalia, 2019. "Simultaneous statistical inference in dynamic factor models: Chi-square approximation and model-based bootstrap," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 30-46.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    family-wise error rate; false discovery rate; likelihood ratio statistic; multiple hypothesis testing; multivariate chi-squared distribution; time series regression; Wald statistic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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