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Dynamical systems forced by shot noise as a new paradigm in the interest rate modeling

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  • Baranovski, Alexander L.

Abstract

In this paper we give a generalized model of the interest rates term structure including Nelson-Siegel and Svensson structure. For that we introduce a continuous m-factor exponential-polynomial form of forward interest rates and demonstrate its considerably better performance in a fitting of the zero-coupon curves in comparison with the well known Nelson-Siegel and Svensson ones. In the sequel we transform the model into a dynamic model for interest rates by designing a switching dynamical system of the considerably reduced dimension n

Suggested Citation

  • Baranovski, Alexander L., 2010. "Dynamical systems forced by shot noise as a new paradigm in the interest rate modeling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-037, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-037
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    13. Fiocco, Raffaele, 2010. "The optimal industry structure in a vertically related market," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-024, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    14. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Veredas, David, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise, and informational volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2733-2746, October.
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    18. Mengmeng Guo & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2017. "Adaptive Interest Rate Modelling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 241-256, April.
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    21. Puriya Abbassi & Dieter Nautz, 2010. "Monetary Transmission Right from the Start: The (Dis)Connection Between the Money Market and the ECB’s Main Refinancing Rates," Working Papers 1011, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 15 Jul 2010.
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    3. Basteck, Christian & Daniëls, Tijmen R., 2010. "Every symmetric 3 x 3 global game of strategic complementarities is noise independent," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-061, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-055 is not listed on IDEAS
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    7. Nikolaus Hautsch & Peter Malec & Melanie Schienle, 2014. "Capturing the Zero: A New Class of Zero-Augmented Distributions and Multiplicative Error Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 89-121.
    8. Grith, Maria & Krätschmer, Volker, 2010. "Parametric estimation of risk neutral density functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-045, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    9. Mammen, Enno & Rothe, Christoph & Schienle, Melanie, 2010. "Nonparametric regression with nonparametrically generated covariates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-059, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    10. Borak, Szymon & Misiorek, Adam & Weron, Rafał, 2010. "Models for heavy-tailed asset returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-049, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    11. Panov, Vladimir, 2010. "Estimation of the signal subspace without estimation of the inverse covariance matrix," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-050, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward interest rates; shot noise processes; switching dynamical systems; chaotic Brownian subordination; chaotic maps;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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