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Immobilienbewertung mit dem Realoptionsverfahren: Eine Umsetzungsstudie

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  • Brenner, Steffen
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Schulz, Rainer

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie untersucht den Realoptionsansatz als Bewertungsverfahren für unentwickelte Immobilien. Im Gegensatz zu klassischen Bewertungsverfahren berücksichtigt das Realoptionsverfahren explizit die Unsicherheit zukünftiger Mieterträge und die daraus folgenden Opportunitätskosten einer sofortigen und irreversiblen Investition. Der empirische Teil der Studie basiert auf einem Datensatz von zwölf Grundstücken, für die Sachverständigengutachten und Transaktionspreise vorliegen. Wir vergleichen die Güte der verschiedenen Bewertungsverfahren bezüglich ihrer Fähigkeit, Transaktionspreise vorherzusagen. Im Vergleich zum Residualwert scheint das Realoptionsverfahren vorteilhaft, da es in den Fällen eines negativen bzw. geringen Residualwertes deutlich höhere und plausiblere Werte liefert. Die Vorhersagegüte des Vergleichswertverfahrens ist allerdings noch besser. Das schlechtere Abschneiden des Realoptionsverfahrens kann damit erklärt werden, dass die Volatililät der zukünftigen Erträge unterschätzt wird. Darauf deuten hohe implizierte Volatilitäten hin. Zudem werden weitere Realoptionen auf Erweiterung und Umnutzung vernachlässigt, die den Wert eines Grundstücks erhöhen können. Diese Optionsprämien werden bei Bewertungen mit dem Vergleichswertverfahren implizit berücksichtigt.

Suggested Citation

  • Brenner, Steffen & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Schulz, Rainer, 2003. "Immobilienbewertung mit dem Realoptionsverfahren: Eine Umsetzungsstudie," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,19, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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