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A state space model for Berlin house prices

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  • Schulz, Rainer
  • Werwatz, Axel

Abstract

How risky are investments in residential real estate? To answer this question, information is needed about the behavior of house prices. The hedonic methodology has become a standard approach for modelling the prices of heterogeneous assets. Although intuitively appealing, it is often criticized that this approach has no sound theoretical background. We have developed a model that partly circumvents this criticism. Based on an approximation for the present value, our model delivers a state space form for the determination of house prices. Thus, we can incorporate in an economically meaningful way other economic variables like the inflation rate, mortgage rates and returns of other assets. Under some restrictive conditions, our model reduces to the standard hedonic approach. We use the EM algorithm with a final scoring step to estimate our model with monthly data of single-family house sales from the four South-West districts of Berlin for the years 1982:7 to 1999:12.

Suggested Citation

  • Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2001. "A state space model for Berlin house prices," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,58, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. R. Carter Hill & J. R. Knight & C. F. Sirmans, 1997. "Estimating Capital Asset Price Indexes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 226-233, May.
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    6. Engle, Robert F. & Lilien, David M. & Watson, Mark, 1985. "A dymimic model of housing price determination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 307-326, June.
    7. Stehle, Richard & Bunke, Olaf & Sommerfeld, Volker, 1997. "Semiparametric modelling of the cross-section of expected returns in the German stock market," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,95, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    8. Dombrow, Jonathan & Knight, J R & Sirmans, C F, 1997. "Aggregation Bias in Repeat-Sales Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 75-88, Jan.-Marc.
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    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-039 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Erling Røed Larsen & Dag Einar Sommervoll, 2006. "The Impact on Rent from Tenant and Landlord Characteristics and Interaction," Discussion Papers 467, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Bocart, Fabian Y. R. P. & Hafner, Christian M., 2012. "Volatility of price indices for heterogeneous goods," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-039, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Present value; Hedonics; Kalman Filter; EM Algorithm; Model Selection; Cross-Validation Criterion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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