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Temporal aggregation and causality in multiple time series models

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  • Breitung, Jörg
  • Swanson, Norman Rasmus

Abstract

In this paper we characterize what has sometimes been referred to in the literature as instantaneous causality, by examining the consequences of temporal aggregation in (possibly) Granger causal systems of variables. Our approach is to compare the concept of contemporaneous correlation due to Swanson and Granger (1997) with that of Granger causality. Using asymptotic theory based on large aggregation intervals we derive conditions for a correspondence between both concepts. These results allow us to differentiate between spurious contemporaneous correlation arising because of aggregation, and true Granger causality. Monte Carlo experiments indicate that the asymptotic results provide a reliable guidance for finite samples and finite aggregation intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Breitung, Jörg & Swanson, Norman Rasmus, 1998. "Temporal aggregation and causality in multiple time series models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,27, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199827
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Brewer, K. R. W., 1973. "Some consequences of temporal aggregation and systematic sampling for ARMA and ARMAX models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-154, June.
    7. Jean-Marie Dufour & Eric Renault, 1998. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1099-1126, September.
    8. Weiss, Andrew A., 1984. "Systematic sampling and temporal aggregation in time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 271-281, December.
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    1. Breitung, Jörg, 1998. "Neuere Entwicklungen auf dem Gebiet ökonometrischer Strukturmodelle: Strukturelle Vektorautoregressionen," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,80, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality; instantaneous causality; contemporaneous correlation; temporal aggregation; stock and ow variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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