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The U.S. fracking boom: Impact on oil prices

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  • Frondel, Manuel
  • Horvath, Marco

Abstract

As of late 2008, the steady decline of U.S. crude oil production over the last decades was reversed by the increased adoption of the hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") technology. Adapting the supply-side model proposed by Kaufmann et al. (2004) to assess OPEC's ability to influence real oil prices, this paper investigates the effect of the increase in U.S. oil production due to fracking on world oil prices. Among our key results obtained from (dynamic) OLS estimations, there is a statistically significant negative long-run relationship between increased U.S. oil production and oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Frondel, Manuel & Horvath, Marco, 2019. "The U.S. fracking boom: Impact on oil prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 794, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:794
    DOI: 10.4419/86788922
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James L. Smith, 2005. "Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 26(1), pages 51-82, January.
    2. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 185-205.
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    5. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    6. Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 67-90.
    7. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(6), pages 137-160, November.
    8. Kaufmann, Robert K., 1995. "A model of the world oil market for project LINK Integrating economics, geology and politics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-178, April.
    9. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Lahiani, Amine & Mefteh-Wali, Salma, 2022. "An analysis of OPEC oil production reaction to non-OPEC oil supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Xing, Li-Min & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil prices with shrinkage methods: Can nonconvex penalty and Huber loss help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Frondel Manuel & Hansteen Sven & Krieg Marielena & Schmidt Christoph M., 2023. "Deutschlands Energieversorgungsrisiko vor Russlands Angriff auf die Ukraine: Ein empirischer Vergleich mit den G7-Staaten," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 233-246, June.
    4. Quint, Dominic & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The influence of OPEC+ on oil prices: a quantitative assessment," Working Paper Series 2467, European Central Bank.
    5. Donia Aloui & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi & Rafla Hchaichi, 2020. "COVID 19's impact on crude oil and natural gas S&P GS Indexes," Working Papers halshs-02613280, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic OLS; error correction model; shale oil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels

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