IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v26y2005i1p51-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • James L. Smith

Abstract

Although OPEC is commonly viewed as a syndicate of producers engaged in cooperative efforts to restrict production and raise price, to date there is a surprising dearth of supporting statistical evidence to that effect. I show that standard statistical tests of OPEC behavior have very low power across a wide range of alternative hypotheses regarding market structure. Consequently, it is difficult, given the current availability and precision of data on demand and costs, to distinguish collusive from competitive behavior in the world oil market. I apply a new, production-based approach for examining alternative hypotheses and find strong evidence of cooperative behavior among OPEC members. My results also suggest that OPEC’s formal quota mechanism, introduced in 1982 to replace a system based on posted prices, increased transactions costs within the organization. Statistical evidence is mixed on the question of whether Saudi Arabia and other core producers have played a special role within the cartel. (JEL: D43, L11, L13, Q41)

Suggested Citation

  • James L. Smith, 2005. "Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 26(1), pages 51-82, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:26:y:2005:i:1:p:51-82
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No1-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No1-3
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No1-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Libecap, Gary D., 1989. "The Political Economy of Crude Oil Cartelization in the United States, 1933–1972," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 833-855, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guy Michaels, 2011. "The Long Term Consequences of Resource‐Based Specialisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 31-57, March.
    2. Hinnerk Gnutzmann & Oskar Kowalewski & Piotr Śpiewanowski, 2020. "Market Structure and Resilience: Evidence from Potash Mine Disasters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 911-933, May.
    3. Balthrop, Andrew T. & Schnier, Kurt E., 2016. "A regression discontinuity approach to measuring the effectiveness of oil and natural gas regulation to address the common-pool externality," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 118-138.
    4. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2016. "Imperfect cartelization in OPEC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 333-344.
    5. Dye, Alan & Sicotte, Richard, 2006. "How brinkmanship saved Chadbourne: Credibility and the International Sugar Agreement of 1931," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 223-256, April.
    6. Azam, Jean-Paul, 2020. "Oil Shocks and Total Factor Productivity in Resource-Poor Economies: The Cases of France and Germany," TSE Working Papers 20-1126, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    7. Elizabeth Hoffman & Gary D. Libecap, 1994. "Political Bargaining and Cartelization in the New Deal: Orange Marketing Orders," NBER Chapters, in: The Regulated Economy: A Historical Approach to Political Economy, pages 189-222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Griffin, James M & Xiong, Weiwen, 1997. "The Incentive to Cheat: An Empirical Analysis of OPEC," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(2), pages 289-316, October.
    9. Benjamin Bridgman & Shi Qi & James A. Schmitz, 2015. "Cartels Destroy Productivity: Evidence from the New Deal Sugar Manufacturing Cartel, 1934-74," Staff Report 519, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Chen, Yan, 2021. "Evaluating the influence of energy prices on tight oil supply with implications on the impacts of COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Gary D. Libecap, 2013. "Addressing Global Environmental Externalities: Transaction Costs Considerations," NBER Working Papers 19501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Gary D. Libecap, 2014. "Addressing Global Environmental Externalities: Transaction Costs Considerations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(2), pages 424-479, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    OPEC; cartel; quotas; cooperative behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:26:y:2005:i:1:p:51-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.