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Beyond Balassa and Samuelson: Real convergence, capital flows, and competitiveness in Greece

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Haskamp, Ulrich
  • Schnabl, Gunther
  • Zemanek, Holger

Abstract

We scrutinize the role of capital flows in competitiveness in a set of seven euroarea member countries (Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Slovenia, and the Slovak Republic) in the context of real convergence and crisis. A specific focus is on Greece. The paper extends the seminal Balassa-Samuelson model to include international capital markets, placing a particular focus on their impact on national wage policies. Capital flows are assumed to be able to invert the traditional direction of transmission of real wage increases from the tradable sector to the non-tradable sector and to cause real wages to increase beyond productivity increases. The augmented Balassa-Samuelson model is extended to trace cyclical deviations of real exchange rates from the productivity-driven equilibrium path. Panel estimations for the period from 1995 to 2013 show evidence of the Balassa-Samuelson effect if Greece is excluded from the panel. For Greece, this in turn provides evidence in favour of capital inflow-driven real wage increases in excess of productivity increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Haskamp, Ulrich & Schnabl, Gunther & Zemanek, Holger, 2015. "Beyond Balassa and Samuelson: Real convergence, capital flows, and competitiveness in Greece," Ruhr Economic Papers 577, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:577
    DOI: 10.4419/86788667
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    3. Christos Kollias & Petros Messis, 2020. "Are future enlargement candidate countries converging with the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 453-473, August.
    4. Piotr Adamczyk & Mateusz Pipień, 2022. "On the Role of Portfolio Indicators of the Capital Flows in the Convergence Processes – An Application of Systems of Regression Equations in the Case of Selected CEE Countries," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 14(3), pages 303-333, September.
    5. Taiki Murai & Gunther Schnabl, 2021. "Macroeconomic Policy Making and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 9153, CESifo.
    6. Antoine GODIN & Sakir-Devrim YILMAZ, 2020. "Modelling Small Open Developing Economies in a Financialized World: A Stock-Flow Consistent Prototype Growth Model," Working Paper 5eb7e0e8-560f-4ce6-91a5-5, Agence française de développement.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balassa-Samuelson effect; capital inflows; exchange rate regime; inflation; Greece; Latvia; Portugal; panel model; productivity differential; wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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