IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/300564.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Heterogeneous pass-through over space and time: The case of Germany's fuel tax discount

Author

Listed:
  • Frondel, Manuel
  • Thiel, Patrick
  • Vance, Colin

Abstract

Exploiting exogenous variation in retail fuel prices from a temporary fuel tax discount in Germany, we estimate how the pass-through of the discount varies over space and time. We draw on daily gasoline prices of virtually all gas stations in Germany and neighboring France, with France serving as a control, and estimate an event study model covering the full period of the discount from June to August 2022. We find average pass-through rates on the order of 87% for diesel and 71% for petrol, but with substantially lower rates in high-income regions and in regions with a low degree of competition. More strikingly, our results suggest pronounced heterogeneity over time: The magnitude of the pass-through rate dissipates sharply over the three months in which the discount was in effect, dropping to 50% by the final month, a pattern consistent with retailer responses to short-term changes in consumer attention. Taken together, our results indicate that average pass-through estimates may obscure a high degree of spatial and temporal heterogeneity that bears upon the assessment of competition and distributional effects: While our estimation of the budgetary costs of the discount confirms the government's a priori estimate of €3.1 billion, we find that about 61% of the discount's financial relief accrues to households with above-median incomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Frondel, Manuel & Thiel, Patrick & Vance, Colin, 2024. "Heterogeneous pass-through over space and time: The case of Germany's fuel tax discount," Ruhr Economic Papers 1087, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:300564
    DOI: 10.4419/96973262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/300564/1/1895978246.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4419/96973262?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marion, Justin & Muehlegger, Erich, 2011. "Fuel tax incidence and supply conditions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(9-10), pages 1202-1212, October.
    2. Matthew S. Lewis & Howard P. Marvel, 2011. "When Do Consumers Search?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 457-483, September.
    3. David P. Byrne & Nicolas de Roos, 2017. "Consumer Search in Retail Gasoline Markets," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 183-193, March.
    4. Chouinard, Hayley & Perloff, Jeffrey M., 2004. "Incidence of federal and state gasoline taxes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 55-60, April.
    5. Justus Haucap & Ulrich Heimeshoff & Manuel Siekmann, 2017. "Fuel Prices and Station Heterogeneity on Retail Gasoline Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(6), pages 81-104, November.
    6. Jacquelyn Pless & Arthur A. van Benthem, 2019. "Pass-Through as a Test for Market Power: An Application to Solar Subsidies," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 367-401, October.
    7. Chouinard Hayley H & Perloff Jeffrey M, 2007. "Gasoline Price Differences: Taxes, Pollution Regulations, Mergers, Market Power, and Market Conditions," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, January.
    8. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2018. "How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 232-244, May.
    9. E. Glen Weyl & Michal Fabinger, 2013. "Pass-Through as an Economic Tool: Principles of Incidence under Imperfect Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(3), pages 528-583.
    10. Schmerer, Hans-Jörg & Hansen, Jaqueline, 2023. "Pass-through effects of a temporary tax rebate on German fuel prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    11. Shanjun Li & Joshua Linn & Erich Muehlegger, 2014. "Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 302-342, November.
    12. Philip G. Gayle & Ying Lin, 2021. "Cost Pass‐Through In Commercial Aviation: Theory And Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(2), pages 803-828, April.
    13. Donald S. Kenkel, 2005. "Are Alcohol Tax Hikes Fully Passed Through to Prices? Evidence from Alaska," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 273-277, May.
    14. James Alm & Edward Sennoga & Mark Skidmore, 2009. "Perfect Competition, Urbanization, And Tax Incidence In The Retail Gasoline Market," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 118-134, January.
    15. Doyle Jr., Joseph J. & Samphantharak, Krislert, 2008. "$2.00 Gas! Studying the effects of a gas tax moratorium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 869-884, April.
    16. Christos Genakos & Mario Pagliero, 2022. "Competition and Pass-Through: Evidence from Isolated Markets," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 35-57, October.
    17. Alexei Alexandrov, 2014. "Pass-Through Rates When Firms Can Vary Package Sizes," Journal of Competition Law and Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 611-619.
    18. Harju, Jarkko & Kosonen, Tuomas & Laukkanen, Marita & Palanne, Kimmo, 2022. "The heterogeneous incidence of fuel carbon taxes: Evidence from station-level data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    19. Zia Wadud & Daniel J. Graham & Robert B. Noland, 2010. "Gasoline Demand with Heterogeneity in Household Responses," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 47-74.
    20. Kayser, Hilke A., 2000. "Gasoline demand and car choice: estimating gasoline demand using household information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 331-348, June.
    21. David P. Byrne, 2019. "Gasoline Pricing in the Country and the City," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 55(2), pages 209-235, September.
    22. Alberini, Anna & Horvath, Marco & Vance, Colin, 2022. "Drive less, drive better, or both? Behavioral adjustments to fuel price changes in Germany," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsvetanov, Tsvetan, 2024. "Tax holidays and the heterogeneous pass-through of gasoline taxes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Can Erutku & Vincent Hildebrand, 2023. "Carbon tax pass‐through in Canadian retail gasoline markets," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 940-963, August.
    3. Drolsbach, Chiara Patricia & Gail, Maximilian Maurice & Klotz, Phil-Adrian, 2023. "Pass-through of temporary fuel tax reductions: Evidence from Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    4. Dovern, Jonas & Frank, Johannes & Glas, Alexander & Müller, Lena Sophia & Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Harju, Jarkko & Kosonen, Tuomas & Laukkanen, Marita & Palanne, Kimmo, 2022. "The heterogeneous incidence of fuel carbon taxes: Evidence from station-level data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Frederik von Waldow & Heike Link, 2024. "Spatial Competition and Pass-through of Fuel Taxes: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2086, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Drolsbach, Chiara Patricia & Gail, Maximilian Maurice & Klotz, Phil-Adrian, 2023. "Pass-through of Temporary Fuel Tax Reductions: Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277655, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Di Giacomo, Marina & Piacenza, Massimiliano & Scervini, Francesco & Turati, Gilberto, 2015. "Should we resurrect ‘TIPP flottante’ if oil price booms again? Specific taxes as fuel consumer price stabilizers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 544-552.
    9. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2017. "Asymmetric incidence of sales taxes: A short-run investigation of gasoline prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 16-23.
    10. Lesley Chiou & Erich Muehlegger, 2014. "Consumer Response to Cigarette Excise Tax Changes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 67(3), pages 621-650, September.
    11. Christos Genakos & Mario Pagliero, 2022. "Competition and Pass-Through: Evidence from Isolated Markets," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 35-57, October.
    12. Erutku, Can, 2019. "Carbon pricing pass-through: Evidence from Ontario and Quebec's wholesale gasoline markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 106-112.
    13. Miravete, Eugenio J. & Seim, Katja & Thurk, Jeff, 2023. "Pass-through and tax incidence in differentiated product markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Susan Xu Tang & David L. Sjoquist, 2019. "Differential Effects of Federal and State Gasoline Taxes on Gasoline Consumption," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 229(2), pages 11-32, June.
    15. Caitlan Russell & Corne van Walbeek, 2016. "How does a change in the excise tax on beer impact beer retail prices in South Africa?," SALDRU Working Papers 162, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    16. Shanjun Li & Joshua Linn & Erich Muehlegger, 2014. "Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 302-342, November.
    17. Don Fullerton & Erich Muehlegger, 2017. "Who Bears the Economic Costs of Environmental Regulations?," NBER Working Papers 23677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Asatryan, Zareh & Gomtsyan, David, 2020. "The incidence of VAT evasion," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. repec:tur:wpaper:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ahundjanov, Behzod B. & Noel, Michael D., 2021. "What’s in a name? The incidence of gasoline excise taxes versus gasoline carbon levies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    21. Caitlan Russell & Corne van Walbeek, 2016. "How does a Change in the Excise Tax on Beer Impact Beer Retail Prices in South Africa?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 555-573, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Competition; demand elasticity; fuel tax discount; gasoline market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:300564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.