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Emissionswirkungen der 2021 reformierten Kfz-Steuer: Eine empirische Analyse

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  • Flintz, Joschka
  • Frondel, Manuel
  • Horvath, Marco

Abstract

Jüngst wurde die emissionsabhängige Komponente der Kfz-Steuer angepasst und progressiv gestaltet, sodass sich die Steuerbelastung für Fahrzeuge mit hoher Emissionsintensität überproportional erhöht hat. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert dieser Beitrag die Effektivität der reformierten Kfz-Steuer in Bezug auf ihre Lenkungswirkung und ihr Einsparpotential an Kohlendioxid (CO2) mit Hilfe des diskreten Nachfragemodells von Berry et al. (1995). Dieses Modell ermöglicht eine realitätsnähere Darstellung der Nachfrageseite als Standard-Logit- oder Nested-Logit-Modelle. Unsere Schätzergebnisse zeigen, dass infolge der Reform jährlich ungefähr 21.000 Autos weniger verkauft werden, die mittlere CO2-Intensität sich um 0,74 g/km verringert und der jährliche CO2-Ausstoß neu gekaufter Fahrzeuge um rund 60.000 Tonnen sinkt. Diese geringen Effekte sind intuitiv verständlich: Eine durchschnittliche Steuererhöhung von rund 11 Euro für die Fahrzeughalter in Deutschland entfaltet nicht die Lenkungswirkung, derer es bedarf, um die Emissionen substanziell zu senken. Unsere Simulationsergebnisse einer fiktiven Kfz-Besteuerung mit stärker progressiven Steuersätzen, die eine mittlere Steuererhöhung von ca. 90 Euro zur Folge hätte, zeigen: Dies würde deutlich stärkere Effekte haben und die durchschnittlichen spezifischen CO2-Emissionen neuer Autos um gut 5 g/km senken sowie die Anzahl an Neuzulassungen um rund 195.000 Pkw. Dadurch könnten jährlich rund 450.000 Tonnen CO2 eingespart werden. Verglichen mit den jährlichen Emissionen der Autoflotte in Deutschland von ca. 100 Millionen Tonnen wären aber selbst die Effekte der fiktiven KfzBesteuerung mit höheren Steuersätzen recht begrenzt.

Suggested Citation

  • Flintz, Joschka & Frondel, Manuel & Horvath, Marco, 2022. "Emissionswirkungen der 2021 reformierten Kfz-Steuer: Eine empirische Analyse," RWI Materialien 154, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwimat:154
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    Cited by:

    1. Timo Schmid & Markus Zwick, 2022. "Editorial," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(3), pages 167-170, December.
    2. Flintz, Joschka & Frondel, Manuel & Horvath, Marco & Vance, Colin, 2022. "Emission effects of Germany's vehicle taxation: Recent empirical evidence," Ruhr Economic Papers 978, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zulassungsteuer; Automobilflotte; spezifische CO2-Emissionen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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