IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/oefsew/52.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity dependence and price volatility in least developed countries: A structuralist computable general equilibrium model with applications to Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Mozambique

Author

Listed:
  • von Arnim, Rudi
  • Tröster, Bernhard
  • Staritz, Cornelia
  • Raza, Werner

Abstract

Many least developed countries (LDCs) face commodity dependence on the export and import side. This paper develops a structuralist computable general equilibrium model for commodity-dependent LDCs and simulates global commodity price shocks for Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Mozambique. Results show important macroeconomic and distributional effects. Although increasing export commodity prices are beneficial, the high correlation with import commodity prices causes low or even negative combined effects. The magnitude of effects depends on the economic structure, the degree of import and export dependence, the production structure of the key commodity sectors and the distribution of windfall profits.

Suggested Citation

  • von Arnim, Rudi & Tröster, Bernhard & Staritz, Cornelia & Raza, Werner, 2015. "Commodity dependence and price volatility in least developed countries: A structuralist computable general equilibrium model with applications to Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Mozambique," Working Papers 52, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:oefsew:52
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/111495/1/828187061.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ederer, Stefan & Heumesser, Christine & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "The role of fundamentals and financialisation in recent commodity price developments: An empirical analysis for wheat, coffee, cotton, and oil," Working Papers 42, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    2. Rudiger von Arnim & Codrina Rada, 2011. "Labor Productivity and Energy Use in a Three Sector Model: An Application to Egypt," Working Papers 630, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    3. Codrina Rada, 2007. "Stagnation or transformation of a dual economy through endogenous productivity growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 711-740, September.
    4. José Antonio Ocampo & Stephany Griffith-Jones, 2007. "A counter-cyclical framework for a development-friendly international financial architecture," Working Papers 39, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    5. Robinson, Sherman, 1991. "Macroeconomics, financial variables, and computable general equilibrium models," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1509-1525, November.
    6. Davies, Rob & Rattso, Jorn, 1996. "Growth, distribution and environment: Macroeconomic issues in Zimbabwe," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 395-405, February.
    7. Rada, Codrina & von Arnim, Rudiger, 2014. "India's structural transformation and role in the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-23.
    8. Pyatt, Graham, 1988. "A SAM approach to modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 327-352.
    9. Troester, Bernhard & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "Fundamentals or financialisation of commodity markets: What determines recent wheat prices?," Working Papers 43, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    10. De Maio, Lorenzo & Stewart, Frances & van der Hoeven, Rolph, 1999. "Computable General Equilibrium Models, Adjustment and the Poor in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 453-470, March.
    11. Rada, Codrina & von Arnim, Rudiger, 2012. "Structural transformation in China and India: A note on macroeconomic policies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 264-275.
    12. Storm, Servaas, 1997. "Agriculture under trade policy reform: A quantitative assessment for India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 425-436, March.
    13. Machiko Nissanke & George Mavrotas (ed.), 2010. "Commodities, Governance and Economic Development under Globalization," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-27402-0, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shiferaw, Y., 2018. "The Bayesian MS-GARCH model and Value-at-Risk in South African agricultural commodity price markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275991, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. von Arnim, Rudiger & Tröster, Bernhard & Staritz, Cornelia & Raza, Werner, 2018. "Commodity price shocks and the distribution of income in commodity-dependent least-developed countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 434-451.
    2. Rada, Codrina & von Arnim, Rudiger, 2014. "India's structural transformation and role in the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) (ed.), 2015. "Österreichische Entwicklungspolitik 2015. Rohstoffe und Entwicklung," Austrian Development Policy Report, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE), number 268194.
    4. Henrique Morrone, 2012. "Formal and Informal Sectors in a Social Accounting Matrix for Brazil," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah morrone_2012_09, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:bla:devpol:v:23:y:2005:i:3:p:299-312 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Social Accounting Matrix: A Very Short Introduction for Economic Modeling," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-477, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Lavopa, Alejandro & Szirmai, Adam, 2018. "Structural modernisation and development traps. An empirical approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 59-73.
    10. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Alvaro Gallardo & Cristian Mardones, 2013. "Environmentally extended social accounting matrix for Chile," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 1099-1127, August.
    12. Scott McDonald & Cecilia Punt, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation, Efficiency and South Africa's Sugar Industry," Working Papers 2004012, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2004.
    13. Susana Santos, 2007. "Macro-SAMs for modelling purposes. An application to Portugal in 2003," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/17, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Tröster, Bernhard, 2020. "Commodity-dependent countries in the COVID-19 crisis," Briefing Papers 25, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    15. Susana Santos, 2004. "Distribution of aggregate income in Portugal from 1995 to 2000 within a SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) framework. Modeling the household sector," Working Papers Department of Economics 2004/12, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Susana SANTOS, 2016. "The Informal Aspects of the Activity of Countries Studied Through Social Accounting and Socio-Demographic Matrices," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 49-78, March.
    17. Ngwinui Belinda Azenui, 2024. "Why is Labor in the SSA LDCs Moving from One Low Productivity Sector to Another?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(1), pages 216-242, February.
    18. Santos, Susana, 2013. "Socio-economic studies with social accounting and socio-demographic Matrices. An (attempted) application to Mozambique," MPRA Paper 47999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Euijune Kim & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings & Hidayat Amir, 2015. "Project Evaluation of Transportation Projects: an Application of Financial Computable General Equilibrium Model," ERSA conference papers ersa15p453, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
    21. Garaffa, Rafael & Gurgel, Angelo & Cunha, Bruno & Lucena, Andre & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto & Rochedo, Pedro, 2018. "Climate finance under a CGE framework: decoupling financial flows in GTAP database," Conference papers 332939, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity Dependence; Price Volatility; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:oefsew:52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ofsewat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.