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Is the euro up for grabs? Evidence from a survey experiment

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  • Baccaro, Lucio
  • Bremer, Björn
  • Neimanns, Erik

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic may lead to a resurgence of the euro crisis. In this context, Italy seems particularly vulnerable: support for the euro is lower than in most other eurozone countries, and a possible exit could have serious consequences for the common currency. Based on a novel survey experiment, this paper shows that the pro-euro coalition is fragile in Italy and preferences are malleable. They are heavily dependent on the perceived costs of continued membership, as a majority of Italians would opt for Italexit rather than accepting a bailout plan requiring the implementation of austerity policies. Individuals who feel they have not benefited from the euro are most likely to support exit when faced with the prospect of austerity. This suggests that, differently from Greece, where voters were determined to remain in the euro at all costs, the pro-euro coalition may crumble if Italy is exposed to harsh conditionality.

Suggested Citation

  • Baccaro, Lucio & Bremer, Björn & Neimanns, Erik, 2020. "Is the euro up for grabs? Evidence from a survey experiment," MPIfG Discussion Paper 20/10, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:2010
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    Cited by:

    1. Lindner, Vincent & Eckert, Sandra & Nölke, Andreas, 2022. "Political science research on the reasons for the (non) adoption and (non) implementation of EMU reform proposals: The state of the art," SAFE Working Paper Series 339, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Marino De Luca, 2022. "Methods for analysing citizens’ attitudes: a hypothetical Italian referendum about the membership of the European Union as a case study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1681-1699, June.

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    Keywords

    euro; framing; Italy; public opinion; survey experiment; voting behaviour; Italien; öffentliche Meinung; Umfrageexperiment; Wahlverhalten;
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