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The equilibrium risk premium on the forward market for foreign currency

Author

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  • Broll, Udo
  • Eckwert, Bernhard

Abstract

This paper constructs an intertemporal model of the spot and forward markets for foreign exchange and shows that in equilibrium the forward market is unbiased, i.e., the forward rate is equal to the expected spot rate which will prevail in the market next period. This holds true as long as the monetary authorities do not exogenously intervene in the foreign exchange market. Our analysis suggests that nominal exchange rate variability can affect the real sector of the economy only if active intervention policies are carried out on the spot exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • Broll, Udo & Eckwert, Bernhard, 1996. "The equilibrium risk premium on the forward market for foreign currency," Discussion Papers, Series II 299, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:299
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
    2. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September.
    3. Broll, Udo & Wahl, Jack E. & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1995. "Indirect hedging of exchange rate risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 667-678, October.
    4. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
    5. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
    6. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August.
    7. Baron, David P, 1976. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Forward Markets, and the Level of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 253-266, June.
    8. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-995, December.
    9. Broll, Udo & Eckwert, Bernhard, 1996. "Cross-Hedging of Exchange-Rate Risk," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 282-286, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate risk; currency forward markets; risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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