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Agrarrelevante Extremwetterlagen und Möglichkeiten von Risikomanagementsystemen: Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (BMEL)

Author

Listed:
  • Gömann, Horst
  • Bender, Andrea
  • Bolte, Andreas
  • Dirksmeyer, Walter
  • Englert, Hermann
  • Feil, Jan-Henning
  • Frühauf, Cathleen
  • Hauschild, Marlen
  • Krengel, Sandra
  • Lilienthal, Holger
  • Löpmeier, Franz-Josef
  • Müller, Jürgen
  • Mußhoff, Oliver
  • Natkhin, Marco
  • Offermann, Frank
  • Seidel, Petra
  • Schmidt, Matthias
  • Seintsch, Björn
  • Steidl, Jörg
  • Strohm, Kathrin

Abstract

Das Verbundforschungsvorhaben untersuchte regional differenzierte Änderungen agrarrelevanter Extremwetterlagen in Deutschland und deren Auswirkungen auf die Landwirtschaft einschließlich Sonderkulturen und Forstwirtschaft. Auswertungen der Stationsdaten von 1961 bis 2013 des Deutschen Wetterdienstes sowie Daten aus 21 Klimamodellläufen bis zum Jahr 2100 zeigten unter anderem einen Anstieg extremer Hitzetage, die auch in Zukunft häufiger werden sollen. Ferner wurde in den letzten 20 Jahren eine Zunahme der Tage ohne Niederschlag im März und April sowie eine Zunahme extrem trockener Tage im Sommer beobachtet, wobei letztere zukünftig weiter zunehmen sollen. Zunehmende Hitze und Trockenheit beeinträchtigen vor allem die Ertragsbildung bei einigen Ackerkulturen, wie z.B. beim Weizen. Im Wald ist die Verjüngungsfähigkeit vor allem unter Fichte und Kiefer gefährdet. Bei einigen Extremwetterlagen, die insbesondere im Acker- und Sonderkulturanbau hohe Schäden verursachen, wie z. B. Hagel, Starkniederschläge und Spätfröste, besteht wegen fehlender Beobachtungsdaten bzw. nicht eindeutiger Wechselwirkungen weiterer Forschungsbedarf. Nach den Ergebnissen besteht angesichts vielfältiger Anpassungsoptionen in der Land- und Forstwirtschaft keine unmittelbare Notwendigkeit, Risikomanagementsysteme staatlich verstärkt zu unterstützen.

Suggested Citation

  • Gömann, Horst & Bender, Andrea & Bolte, Andreas & Dirksmeyer, Walter & Englert, Hermann & Feil, Jan-Henning & Frühauf, Cathleen & Hauschild, Marlen & Krengel, Sandra & Lilienthal, Holger & Löpmeier, F, 2015. "Agrarrelevante Extremwetterlagen und Möglichkeiten von Risikomanagementsystemen: Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (BMEL)," Thünen Reports 30, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:jhtire:30
    DOI: 10.3220/REP1434012425000
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    Cited by:

    1. Trommsdorff, Max & Hopf, Michaela & Hörnle, Oliver & Berwind, Matthew & Schindele, Stephan & Wydra, Kerstin, 2023. "Can synergies in agriculture through an integration of solar energy reduce the cost of agrivoltaics? An economic analysis in apple farming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    2. Filiptseva, Anna & Filler, Günther & Odening, Martin, 2022. "Compensation Options for Quarantine Costs in Plant Production," 62nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 7-9, 2022 329595, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    3. Marco Rogna & Günter Schamel & Alex Weissensteiner, 2023. "Modelling the switch from hail insurance to antihail nets," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(1), pages 118-136, January.
    4. Duden, C. & Offermann, F., 2019. "Farmers' risk exposition and its drivers," 171st Seminar, September 5-6, 2019, Zürich, Switzerland 333722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Schmitt, Jonas & Offermann, Frank & Söder, Mareike & Frühauf, Cathleen & Finger, Robert, 2022. "Extreme weather events cause significant crop yield losses at the farm level in German agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extremwetterlagen; Klimaanpassung; Risikomanagement; GAP; extreme weather events; climate adaptation; risk management; CAP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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