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Incomplete insurance and open-economy spillovers of labor market reforms

Author

Listed:
  • Hochmuth, Brigitte
  • Merkl, Christian
  • Stüber, Heiko

Abstract

This paper shows that less generous unemployment benefits in one country may generate substantial negative long-run consumption spillovers to non-reforming countries under incomplete consumption insurance. While lower benefits reduce unemployment in the reforming country, employed workers increase their precautionary savings to compensate for reduced government-provided insurance. A portion of these additional savings flows to the non-reforming country and depresses long-term consumption due to the negative net foreign asset position. To discipline our quantitative model, we estimate the increase of Germany's tradable sector in the aftermath of the Hartz unemployment insurance reform based on firm-level data. Our quantitative model matches a significant fraction of various macroeconomic trends after the reform, namely Germany's persistent increase of aggregate savings and net foreign assets, the increase of net exports, the real exchange rate depreciation within the Eurozone, and the decline in unemployment. Conversely, Germany's wage moderation before the reform appears to be unrelated to most of these phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • Hochmuth, Brigitte & Merkl, Christian & Stüber, Heiko, 2024. "Incomplete insurance and open-economy spillovers of labor market reforms," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 03/2024, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwqwdp:298854
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2016. "Understanding the Gains from Wage Flexibility: The Exchange Rate Connection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3829-3868, December.
    2. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2014. "Labour Market Institutions and Worker Flows: Comparing Germany and the US," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1317-1342, December.
    3. Krause, Michael U. & Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 64-79.
    4. Hartung, Benjamin & Jung, Philip & Kuhn, Moritz, 2018. "What Hides behind the German Labor Market Miracle? Unemployment Insurance Reforms and Labor Market Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 12001, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Broer, Tobias, 2014. "Domestic or global imbalances? Rising income risk and the fall in the US current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 47-67.
    6. Mr. Tom Krebs & Mr. Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Working Papers 2013/042, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment insurance reform; spillover effects; precautionary savings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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