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Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Stressszenarien für die Jahre 2014 bis 2018

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  • Lindner, Axel
  • Drygalla, Andrej

Abstract

In der vorliegenden Studie werden zunächst die weltweiten konjunkturellen Aussichten für das Ende des Jahres 2014 und für die Jahre 2015 bis 2018 dargestellt. Dabei wird folgender Länderkreis betrachtet: Deutschland, Frankreich, Italien, Spanien, die Niederlande, Belgien, Griechenland, Portugal, Irland, Großbritannien, Schweden, Polen, Tschechien, Russland, USA, Kanada, Mexiko, Brasilien, Türkei, Japan, Südkorea, China, Australien. Es werden zudem auch negative und positive Risikoszenarien für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung dargestellt. In einem zweiten Teil der Studie werden die zu erwartenden Effekte eines Primärenergiepreisschocks auf die Konjunktur der oben genannten Länder und die Welt untersucht.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindner, Axel & Drygalla, Andrej, 2015. "Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Stressszenarien für die Jahre 2014 bis 2018," IWH Online 3/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhonl:32015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Deutsche Wirtschaft stagniert – Jetzt Wachstumskräfte stärken," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(20), pages 03-61, October.
    2. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    3. Holtemöller, Oliver & Drygalla, Andrej & Lindner, Axel, 2014. "Auswirkungen eines weltweiten Zinsanstiegs auf die Konjunkturentwicklung," IWH Online 5/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Scharff, Juliane & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The Halle Economic Projection Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1461-1472.
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    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Weltwirtschaft;

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