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Surges and instability: The maturity shortening channel

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  • Li, Xiang
  • Su, Dan

Abstract

Capital inflow surges destabilise the economy through a maturity shortening mechanism. The underlying reason is that firms have incentives to redeem their debt on demand to accommodate the potential liquidity needs of global investors, which makes international borrowing endogenously fragile. Based on a theoretical model and empirical evidence at both the firm and macro levels, our main findings are twofold. First, a significant association exists between surges and shortened corporate debt maturity, especially for firms with foreign bank relationships and higher redeployability. Second, the probability of a crisis following surges with a flattened yield curve is significantly higher than that following surges without one. Our study suggests that debt maturity is the key to understand the financial instability consequences of capital inflow bonanzas.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xiang & Su, Dan, 2022. "Surges and instability: The maturity shortening channel," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:232020
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital inflow surges; corporate maturity structure; systemic financial crisis; term structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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