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Messung der gefühlten Inflation in Deutschland

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  • Treu, Johannes
  • Hartwig, Johannes

Abstract

This paper shows that there is a very large difference between the official measured inflation rate with its basket of 650 types of goods and perceived inflation in Germany. While the inflation rate in Germany was 10.0% in September 2022 and 10.4% in October, a nationwide survey revealed that respondents perceived inflation to be 34.15%. At the same time, the paper provides an explanatory approach to explain the perceived inflation using a regression model. It becomes clear that all independent variables are highly significant and provide an explanatory contribution. It also shows that higher inflation concerns lead to a higher estimate of perceived inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Treu, Johannes & Hartwig, Johannes, 2022. "Messung der gefühlten Inflation in Deutschland," IU Discussion Papers - Business & Management 12 (November 2022), IU International University of Applied Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:12november2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini, 2008. "Perceived and measured inflation after the launch of the euro: explaining the gap in Italy," Springer Books, in: Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini (ed.), The Euro, Inflation and Consumer’s Perceptions, chapter 1, pages 13-49, Springer.
    2. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    4. Rodolfo Arioli & Colm Bates & Heinz Dieden & Ioana Duca & Roberta Friz & Christian Gayer & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Iskra Pavlova, 2016. "EU Consumers’ Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: An Evaluation," European Economy - Discussion Papers 038, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    6. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2018. "Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy Design: Evidence From The Laboratory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 1035-1075, June.
    7. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 326-368, March.
    8. Gunther Schnabl & Tim Florian Sepp, 2021. "Inflationsziel und Inflationsmessung in der Eurozone im Wandel [Inflation Targeting and Inflation Measurement in the Euro Area in Transition]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(8), pages 615-620, August.
    9. Friedrich Fritzer & Fabio Rumler, 2015. "Determinants of Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: an Empirical Analysis for Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 11-26.
    10. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2013. "Measuring Inflation Expectations," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 273-301, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Gefühlte Inflation; Inflationserwartungen; Inflationsmessung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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