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Trend und Zyklus im Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - eine Anmerkung

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  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick

Abstract

This note shows that German real GDP follows a trend-stationary process. Both tests which have trend-stationarity as the alternative hypothesis as well as tests that have it under the null hypothesis prefer the trend-stationary model. Explicit consideration of breaks in the trend is not necessary to obtain this result. The trend-stationary model with breaks is, however, advantageous for trend-cycle decompositions.

Suggested Citation

  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2000. "Trend und Zyklus im Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - eine Anmerkung," Kiel Working Papers 993, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:993
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturzyklus; Stationarität; Strukturbrüche Trends; business cycles; stationarity; structural change; Trend;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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