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The disintegration of the ruble zone: Driving forces and proposals for policy change

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  • Orlowski, Lucjan T.

Abstract

This paper examines the irreversible process of the ruble zone disintegration. Theoretical fundamentals of a common currency area, with modifications incorporating a mechanism of transition from central planning, are discussed. The key reason for the ruble zone break-up is the discontinuation of indirect transfers that were provided mainly by Russia via underpricing energy exports to other republics. Being cut-off from such transfers and unable to finance rising trade deficits with Russia, the independent stales wish to disconnect their economies from the ruble /.one. Among other economic arguments for leaving the ruble zone presented by the former Soviet republics are: a desire to insulate their economies from the ruble zone inflation, and a willingness to collect seigniorage revenues from printing their own currencies. The paper critically evaluates these and several other arguments. The abrupt break-up of the ruble zone causes interruptions in supplies of essential materials and consumer goods, and an income downfall among the republics. The foundation for a new inter-state payments mechanism is proposed in order to cushion these negative effects. A system of independently traded currencies with flexible exchange rates is viewed as a reasonable, yet distant solution.

Suggested Citation

  • Orlowski, Lucjan T., 1993. "The disintegration of the ruble zone: Driving forces and proposals for policy change," Kiel Working Papers 585, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:585
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    1. Casella, Alessandra, 1992. "Participation in a Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 847-863, September.
    2. Stanley Fischer, 1992. "Russia and the Soviet Union Then and Now," NBER Working Papers 4077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1992. "Lessons from Experiences with High Inflation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(1), pages 13-31, January.
    4. Mr. Guillermo Calvo & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," IMF Working Papers 1992/040, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Orlowski, Lucjan T, 1995. "Direct Transfers between the Former Soviet Union Central Budget and the Republics: Past Evidence and Current Implications," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 59-73.
    6. Willem H. Buiter & Jonathan Eaton, 1983. "International Balance of Payments Financing and Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 1120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Langhammer, Rolf J., 1994. "Designing new trade policies for the CIS states: legacies, barriers and prerequisites," Kiel Working Papers 625, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Wolf, Marvin, 2013. "Währungsunionen und Allmendeproblem," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-521, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

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