IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/frd/wpaper/dp2008-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dollarization as an Investment Signal in Developing Countries: The Case of Croatia, Czech Republic, Peru, Slovak Republic and Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Emre Ozsoz

    (Fordham University, Department of Economics)

  • Erick W. Rengifo

    (Fordham University, Department of Economics)

  • Dominick Salvatore

    (Fordham University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

In dollarized financial systems, there exists a currency mismatch risk that could lead to financial crises. Central Banks in such economies have to adjust their foreign currency policies accordingly. This paper estimates the probability of Central Bankers' intervention in the foreign currency markets in dollarized economies as explained by the volatility measures of the local exchange rate. By employing data from five countries, we show that in controlled inflation environments, not only Central Banks' interventions but also the direction of the interventions can be predicted to a good degree while under high inflation our model fails to provide healthy results.

Suggested Citation

  • Emre Ozsoz & Erick W. Rengifo & Dominick Salvatore, 2008. "Dollarization as an Investment Signal in Developing Countries: The Case of Croatia, Czech Republic, Peru, Slovak Republic and Turkey," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-16, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2008-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://archive.fordham.edu/ECONOMICS_RESEARCH/PAPERS/dp2008_16_ozsoz_rengifo_salvatore.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raghuram G. Rajan & Ioannis Tokatlidis, 2005. "Dollar Shortages and Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
    2. Ize, Alain & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Financial dollarization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 323-347, March.
    3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences [‘A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 62-118.
    4. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
    5. Egert, Balazs, 2007. "Central bank interventions, communication and interest rate policy in emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 387-413, June.
    6. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," MPRA Paper 20338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "The Dynamics of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries: Evidence from Threshold VAR," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 66-83.
    2. Branko Uroševic & Ivana Rajkovic, 2016. "Dollarization of Deposits in the Short and Long Run: Evidence from CESE Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 5745, CESifo.
    3. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "Monetary Determinants of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(1), pages 89-101, March.
    4. Arizmendi, Luis-Felipe, 2013. "An extended model of currency options applicable as policy tool for central banks with inflation targeting and dollarized economies," MPRA Paper 52880, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Apr 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vieira, Fabrício A.C. & Holland, Márcio & Resende, Marco F., 2012. "Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1695-1714.
    2. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Asongu, Simplice A., 2018. "Extending the determinants of dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of easy access to foreign exchange earnings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-120.
    3. Helmut Stix, 2008. "Euroization: What Factors drive its Persistence?," Working Papers 140, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2006. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0609, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:159:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "The Dynamics of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries: Evidence from Threshold VAR," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 66-83.
    8. Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2012. "Investigating the Time Varying Nature of the Link between Inflation and Currency Substitution in the Turkish Economy," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20122, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    9. Thomas Scheiber & Helmut Stix, 2009. "Euroization in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe – New Evidence On Its Extent and Some Evidence On Its Causes," Working Papers 159, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    10. Kubo, Koji, 2014. "Deposit dollarization in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 473, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    11. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    12. Erick W. Rengifo & Emre Ozsoz & Mustapha A. Akinkunmi & Eduardo Court, 2013. "Bank Regulation in Dollarized Economies: The Case of Turkey," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(4), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    14. Arrieta Vidal, Johar & Florián Hoyle, David & López Vargas, Kristian & Morales Vásquez, Valeria, 2022. "Policies for transactional de-dollarization: A laboratory study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 31-54.
    15. Moura, Marcelo L. & Pereira, Fatima R. & Attuy, Guilherme de Moraes, 2013. "Currency Wars in Action: How Foreign Exchange Interventions Work in an Emerging Economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_304, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    16. Edmar Lisboa Bacha & Márcio Holland & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2007. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest in Emerging Markets," Textos para Discussão 11, Instituto de Estudos de Política Econômica.
    17. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman, 2008. "Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-118, March.
    18. Herman Kamil, 2012. "How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms' Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/069, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Stix, Helmut, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-16.
    20. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Juan Carlos Berganza, 2004. "What Makes Balance Sheet Effects Detrimental For The Country Risk Premium?," International Finance 0408002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Cesteros, Santiago Rodrigo, 2018. "Sobre volatilidad macroeconómica y dolarización de la riqueza: el caso argentino [On macroeconomic volatility and wealth dollarization: the Argentine case]," MPRA Paper 88968, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Intervention; Foreign Exchange Rates; Dollarization; Ordered Probit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2008-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fordham Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edforus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.