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Restructuring sovereign bonds: Holdouts, haircuts and the effectiveness of CACs

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  • Fang, Chuck
  • Schumacher, Julian
  • Trebesch, Christoph

Abstract

Sovereign debt crises are difficult to solve. This paper studies the "holdout problem", meaning the risk that creditors refuse to participate in a debt restructuring. We document a large variation in holdout rates, based on a comprehensive new dataset of 23 bond restructurings with external creditors since 1994. We then study the determinants of holdouts and find that the size of creditor losses (haircuts) is among the best predictors at the bond level. In a restructuring, bonds with higher haircuts see higher holdout rates, and the same is true for small bonds and those issued under foreign law. Collective action clauses (CACs) are effective in reducing holdout risks. However, classic CACs, with bond-by-bond voting, are not sufficient to assure high participation rates. Only the strongest form of CACs, with single-limb aggregate voting, minimizes the holdout problem according to our simulations. The results help to inform theory as well as current policy initiatives on reforming sovereign bond markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Chuck & Schumacher, Julian & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Restructuring sovereign bonds: Holdouts, haircuts and the effectiveness of CACs," Kiel Working Papers 2175, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2175
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    Cited by:

    1. Schumacher, Julian & Trebesch, Christoph & Enderlein, Henrik, 2021. "Sovereign defaults in court," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi & Pietro Bomprezzi, 2024. "Is to Forgive to Forget? Sovereign Risk in the Aftermath of Private or Official Debt Restructurings," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 292-334, March.
    3. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2020. "Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison," CEPR Discussion Papers 14439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Josefin Meyer & Carmen M Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Sovereign Bonds Since Waterloo," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1615-1680.
    5. Elard, Ilaf, 2020. "Three-player sovereign debt negotiations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 217-240.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    7. Rosario Bustillo & Tomás A. Marinozzi, 2022. "Argentina vs Holdouts. The Complete Saga (2005-2016)," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 831, Universidad del CEMA.
    8. Graf Von Luckner, Clemens & Meyer, Josefin & Reinhart, Carmen & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "External sovereign debt restructurings: Delay and replay," MPRA Paper 117470, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Mar 2021.
    9. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Sebastian M. Saiegh & Glen Biglaiser, 2024. "The value of legal recourse in sovereign bond markets: Evidence from Argentina," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(3), pages 669-709, September.
    11. Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella D. Legrenzi & Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2024. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk: A Nonlinear Approach Based on Local Gaussian Correlations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11019, CESifo.
    12. Bai, Ye & Banerji, Sanjay & Wang, Zilong & Zhang, Wenjing, 2024. "Can participation in IMF programs facilitate sovereign debt rescheduling? The role of program size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi & Pietro Bomprezzi, 2021. "Is to Forgive to Forget? Sovereign Risk in the Aftermath of a Default," Development Working Papers 475, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    14. Giselle Datz, 2021. "Ties that bind and blur: financialization and the evolution of sovereign debt as private contract," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 571-587, December.
    15. Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Natural disasters, climate change, and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Nicoletta Layher & Eyden Samunderu, 2020. "The Impact of the Introduction of Uniform European Collective Action Clauses on European Government Bonds as a Regulatory Result of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-32, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default; debt restructuring; international financial architecture; creditor Coordination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • K22 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Business and Securities Law

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