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Climate policy as expectation management?

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  • Narita, Daiju

Abstract

It is believed that the primary economic solution to climate change is an introduction of a carbon pricing system anchored to the social cost of carbon, either as a form of tax or tradable permits. Potentially significant externalities accompanying the introduction of emission-reducing technologies, however, imply that the standard argument does not capture some important aspects for the designing of climate policy such as expectation-driven technology adoption. By using a simple model, we show some possible cases where carbon emission reduction progresses in a self-fulfilling prophecy by firms expecting others' future actions. In such circumstances, the carbon pricing system does not have much influence on determining the final outcome of economy-wide emission reduction. This highlights the danger of overemphasis on finding the 'right' carbon price in policy making and the role of climate policy as expectation management.

Suggested Citation

  • Narita, Daiju, 2010. "Climate policy as expectation management?," Kiel Working Papers 1624, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1624
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Narita, Daiju & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2011. "Expectation-driven climate treaties with breakthrough technologies," Kiel Working Papers 1732, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate policy; technology choice; expectations; multiple equilibria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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