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Die Landwirtschaft der Entwicklungsländer unter dem Einfluß von Ölpreissteigerung und Nahrungspreissenkung: Eine quantitative Analyse der Wirkungen auf Außenhandel, Produktion und Wertschöpfung in der Elfenbeinküste, Mexiko und Südkorea

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  • Dick, Hermann
  • Gerken, Egbert
  • Vincent, David P.

Abstract

Die Rahmenbedingungen der Landwirtschaft der Entwicklungsländer verändern sich durch preisniveauwirksame Interventionen in den Welthandel. Dazu gehören - jeweils bezogen auf eine interventionsfreie Entwicklung - die Energiepreissteigerung durch das Angebotskartell der erdölexportierenden Staaten und die Preisminderung für Nahrungsgüter der gemäßigten Zonen durch den Agrarprotektionismus der Industrieländer. Dagegen muss der Versuch der Preisindexierung für tropische agrarische Rohstoffe durch vertragliche Vereinbarungen vorerst als gescheitert angesehen werden (Stecher 1981). Ölpreissteigerung und Nahrungsgüterpreissenkung verändern direkt die Produktionskosten und die Produktpreise der Landwirtschaft in Entwicklungsländern. Sie verändern zugleich die Preisrelationen zwischen den Exporten und Importen der Länder (Terms of Trade). Die außenwirtschaftliche Anpassung an veränderte Terms of Trade wiederum, die zur Wiederherstellung des außenwirtschaftlichen Gleichgewichts erforderlich ist, löst indirekte Wirkungen auf den Export, den Import, die inländische Produktion und die Wertschöpfung landwirtschaftlicher Güter aus. Die indirekten können die direkten Effekte verstärken, abschwächen oder auch überlagern. Eine Beschränkung der Analyse auf die direkten Preis- und Kosteneffekte der exogenen Veränderungen birgt daher die Gefahr von Fehlschlüssen. Mögliche Strategien außenwirtschaftlicher Anpassung und die Auswirkung auf die Landwirtschaft werden in Kapitel 2 für den Fall des ölimportierenden Landes beschrieben. In Kapitel 3 wird der Ansatz der quantitativen Untersuchung skizziert und in Kapitel 4 bzw. 5 wird über die Ergebnisse von Modellexperimenten mit einer Ölpreissteigerung bzw. Preissenkung für Nahrungsgüter unter alternativen Anpassungsstrategien berichtet. Am Schluss der beiden Kapitel werden jeweils direkte und indirekte Effekte gegenübergestellt.

Suggested Citation

  • Dick, Hermann & Gerken, Egbert & Vincent, David P., 1981. "Die Landwirtschaft der Entwicklungsländer unter dem Einfluß von Ölpreissteigerung und Nahrungspreissenkung: Eine quantitative Analyse der Wirkungen auf Außenhandel, Produktion und Wertschöpfung in der," Kiel Working Papers 127, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hanoch, Giora, 1971. "CRESH Production Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 695-712, September.
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