IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1050.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sources of Euro Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: What Is Behind the Euro Weakness in 1999-2000?

Author

Listed:
  • Gottschalk, Jan
  • Döpke, Jörg
  • Kamps, Christophe

Abstract

This paper analyzes the factors underlying the weakness of the euro. For this purpose, the framework advocated by Clarida and Gali (1994) is used. Within this model, three structural shocks drive the dynamics of the endogenous variables: aggregate supply shocks, aggregate spending shocks, and monetary shocks. Applying a structural VAR to data for the eurozone and the U.S. suggests that supply shocks are the most important factor explaining real exchange rate fluctuations in the sample from 1980 to 2000. However, historical decompositions reveal that fluctuations since the introduction of the euro in 1999 have been predominantly driven by demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gottschalk, Jan & Döpke, Jörg & Kamps, Christophe, 2001. "Sources of Euro Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: What Is Behind the Euro Weakness in 1999-2000?," Kiel Working Papers 1050, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/17721/1/kap1050.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20001, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    3. Bas Aarle & Michael Boss & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2000. "Forecasting the Euro exchange rate using vector error correction models," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 232-258, June.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Clostermann, Jörg & Schnatz, Bernd, 2000. "The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate: synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August.
    7. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    8. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    9. Cohen, Daniel & Loisel, Olivier, 2001. "Why was the euro weak? Markets and policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 988-994, May.
    10. Siebert, Horst, 2000. "The Euro: The issues for the future," Kiel Discussion Papers 361, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    12. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 1999. "Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks: evidence for the mark/dollar parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    14. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    15. Mark S. Astley & Anthony Garratt, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Prices: Sources of Sterling Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations 1973–94," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 491-509, September.
    16. Jordi Galí, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    2. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
    3. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.
    4. Sfia, Mohamed Daly, 2006. "Tunisia: Sources Of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 3129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Prof. Neil D. Karunaratne, 2002. "Microeconomic Shocks, Depreciation and Inflation: an Australian Perspective," Discussion Papers Series 298, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    6. Massimo Giuliodori, "undated". "The Empirical Relevance of a basic sticky-price intertemporal model," Working Papers 2001_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    7. Rodrigo Caputo & Gustavo Leyva & Michael Pedersen, 2014. "The Changing Nature of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations. New Evidence for Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 730, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Mark S. Astley & Anthony Garratt, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Prices: Sources of Sterling Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations 1973–94," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 491-509, September.
    9. Alexius, Annika, 2000. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper Series 117, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. DeLoach, Stephen B. & Rasche, Robert H., 1998. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations in a large open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 565-596, August.
    11. Jan Gottschalk & Mr. Ashok Bhundia, 2003. "Sources of Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2003/252, International Monetary Fund.
    12. K. Farrant & G. Peersman, 2005. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/285, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    13. Hoffmann, M. & MacDonald, R., 2001. "A real differential view of equilibrium real exchange rate," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0103, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    14. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Estimating exchange rate responsiveness to shocks," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 338-351, December.
    15. Kiptui, Moses, 2015. "Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Kenya: The Relative Importance of Real and Nominal Shocks," MPRA Paper 61515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
    18. Catherine Bruneau & Olivier De Bandt, 1999. "La modélisation Var "structurel" : application à la politique monétaire en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 67-94.
    19. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Une analyse économétrique des sources de fluctuations du taux de change réel dans trois pays en développement. Le cas du Maroc, des Philippines et de l'Uruguay," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(6), pages 1421-1453.
    20. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen, 2000. "Euroland: Peak of the upswing – Little evidence of a new economy," Kiel Discussion Papers 369, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; structural vector autoregression; EMU; USA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1050. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.