IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkpb/94.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic slowdown in China: Current assessment and global implications

Author

Listed:
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Potjagailo, Galina

Abstract

After three decades of double digit growth the Chinese economy has become the second largest economy in the world and the most important contributor to global growth. However, in recent years the Chinese economy has slowed substantially. While official numbers for GDP growth report output growth that is still in line with the government's - downwardly adjusted - growth target, alternative indicators of economic activity suggest an even stronger deceleration. In addition, the huge level of debt piled up in recent years in combination with a correction in property prices and - more recently - equity prices have raised fears of a financial meltdown. Against this backdrop, in this note we discuss the current state of the Chinese economy and the risks for the global economy associated with a "hard landing", a sudden pronounced drop in growth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Potjagailo, Galina, 2015. "Economic slowdown in China: Current assessment and global implications," Kiel Policy Brief 94, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:94
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/121390/1/837448565.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    2. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "Econometric Analysis of High Dimensional VARs Featuring a Dominant Unit," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5-6), pages 592-649, August.
    3. Dr Katerina Lisenkova & Iana Liadze & Dr Ian Hurst, 2014. "Overview of the NiGEM-S Model: Scottish version of the National Institute Global Econometric Model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 422, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2020. "Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao, volume 41, pages 143-189, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Mr. Mauricio Vargas & Daniela Hess, 2019. "The Caribbean and its Linkages with the World: A GVAR Model Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/256, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Faryna, Oleksandr & Simola, Heli, 2018. "The transmission of international shocks to CIS economies: A Global VAR approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Hashem M. Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2011. "Beyond the DSGE Straitjacket," CESifo Working Paper Series 3447, CESifo.
    5. Chudik, Alexander & Grossman, Valerie & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 349-365.
    6. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    7. Fratzscher, Marcel & Chudik, Alexander, 2010. "Identifying the Global Transmission of the 2007-09 Financial Crisis in a GVAR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    9. Considine, Jennifer & Hatipoglu, Emre & Aldayel, Abdullah, 2022. "The sensitivity of oil price shocks to preexisting market conditions: A GVAR analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    10. Oleksandr Faryna & Heli Simola, 2018. "The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Working Papers 04/2018, National Bank of Ukraine.
    11. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    13. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "The (Asymmetric) effect of El Niño and La Niña on gold and silver prices in a GVAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Guillaume Pierre & Jonathan Kaminski, 2019. "Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 79-90, January.
    16. Bettendorf, Timo, 2017. "Investigating Global Imbalances: Empirical evidence from a GVAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 201-210.
    17. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2019. "The US oil supply revolution and the global economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1515-1546, November.
    18. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka S. & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2021. "Global imbalances, external adjustment and propagated shocks: An African perspective from a global VAR model," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 186-203.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Soklis, George & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 74-94.
    21. Szendrei, Tibor & Eross, Andrea & Mohammed, Mustapha & Ersoy, Erkal, 2024. "Investigating the effect of green finance initiatives on renewable energy penetration in Europe," Accountancy, Economics, and Finance Working Papers 2024-07, Heriot-Watt University, Department of Accountancy, Economics, and Finance.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.