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Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Herbst 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft mit langsamer Gangart

Author

Listed:
  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Mösle, Saskia
  • Potjagailo, Galina
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird ihr derzeit hohes Expansionstempo mittelfristig nicht beibehalten können. So dürfte sich das Wachstum des Produktionspotenzials von 1,7 Prozent im laufenden Jahr sukzessive auf unter 1,4 Prozent im Jahr 2023 abschwächen. Maßgeblich ist, dass aufgrund des demografischen Wandels von der Entwicklung des Arbeitskräfteangebots kaum noch positive Impulse auf das Potenzialwachstum ausgehen. Hinzu kommt, dass sich die Hochkonjunktur in Deutschland wohl allmählich ihrem Ende entgegenneigt. Angesichts der bereits hohen Kapazitätsauslastung fällt es den Unternehmen zusehends schwerer, ihre Produktion weiter in hohem Tempo auszuweiten. In den kommenden beiden Jahren dürften die expansive Finanzpolitik (2019) bzw. die hohe Zahl an Arbeitstagen (2020) das Bruttoinlandsprodukt noch stützen. Für die Jahre danach zeichnet sich der Beginn eines Abschwungs ab, zumal dann die konjunkturelle Dynamik unserer Einschätzung zufolge bereits so hoch ist wie seit der Wiedervereinigung nicht mehr. Dies alles stellt die Wirtschaftspolitik vor erhebliche Herausforderungen, da sie mittelfristig nicht nur konjunkturell, sondern auch strukturell bedingt niedrigeren Einnahmen und höheren Ausgaben entgegensieht.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, U, 2018. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Herbst 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft mit langsamer Gangart," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 48, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:48
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    2. Ademmer, Martin, 2018. "Vergleich der Produktionslückenschätzung mit der anderer Institutionen und alternativer Modelle," Kiel Insight 2018.7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft: Aufschwungskräfte tragen noch [German Economy Autumn 2018 - Germany's boom is maturing]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 47, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    Keywords

    Produktionslücke; Produktionspotenzial; Mittelfristprojektion; Totale Faktorproduktivität; Finanzzyklus;
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