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German Economy Summer 2022 - Slowly progessing recovery

Author

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Meuchelböck, Saskia
  • Sonnenberg, Nils

Abstract

The German economy navigates troubled waters. The catch-up process in the contact-intensive service industries is continuing at a fast pace and companies in the manufacturing sector are sitting on wellfilled order books. However, high inflation is reducing the purchasing power of disposable incomes and thus dampening the recovery in consumption. In addition, supply bottlenecks have recently worsened again due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, the recovery will regain strength only in the second half of the year, when prices will no longer rise as rapidly and supply bottlenecks will begin to ease. Overall, we expect GDP to increase by 2.1 percent this year, as in our spring forecast. In 2023, GDP will grow by 3.3 percent (spring forecast: 3.5 percent). At 7.4 percent, inflation in the current year will be higher than ever before in reunified Germany. Next year, inflation will probably remain high with 4.2 percent. The recovery in employment continues. Effective earnings will rise strongly, also because labor shortages have reached an all-time high. In the current year, however, the increase of about 5 percent will lag behind the rate of inflation. Public budget deficits will decline as revenues increase strongly and pandemic-related expenditures are reduced. In 2023, public debt in relation to GDP is expected to be slightly above 60 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Meuchelböck, Saskia & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2022. "German Economy Summer 2022 - Slowly progessing recovery," Kiel Institute Economic Outlook 92, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:92
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    as
    1. Hauber, Philipp, 2018. "Zur Kurzfristprognose mit Faktormodellen und Prognoseanpassungen," Kiel Insight 2018.5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2022. "Euroraum im Frühjahr 2022 - Kriegsschock lastet auf Erholung [Euro Area Spring 2022 - War in Ukraine impairs post-pandemic recovery]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 88, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Meuchelböck, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2021. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2021 - Pandemiebedingte Potenzialschäden eher gering," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 78, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kooths, Stefan & Reents, Jan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2022. "Weltwirtschaft im Sommer 2022 - Inflationsschub bremst die Expansion [World Economy Summer 2022 - Inflation is curbing global growth]," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 261365, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Beckmann, Joscha & Jannsen, Nils, 2021. "Bedeutung von Lieferengpässen für die laufende Produktion in Deutschland," Kiel Insight 2021.09, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kooths, Stefan & Reents, Jan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2022. "Weltwirtschaft im Sommer 2022 - Inflationsschub bremst die Expansion [World Economy Summer 2022 - Inflation is curbing global growth]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 91, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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