IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkeo/20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

German Economy Summer 2016 - Expansion remains on track

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Plödt, Martin
  • Potjagailo, Galina

Abstract

The economic upswing in Germany is set to continue. GDP is likely to grow 1.9 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year. Strong domestic drivers remain the dominant factors. The significantly lower number of refugees arriving since the start of the year will be mainly reflected in a somewhat lower fiscal impulse during the forecast period. The labor market situation will improve further against the backdrop of a buoyant economy and an ongoing employment-friendly trend in wages. Consumers will see their purchasing power supported this year by the downward pressure of oil prices on inflation. Although public sector budgets are likely to close both years in positive territory, the surpluses are due to economic conditions rather than fiscal consolidation efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "German Economy Summer 2016 - Expansion remains on track," Kiel Institute Economic Outlook 20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/209486/1/kkb_20_2016-q2_germany.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Biggs & Thomas Mayer & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Credit and economic recovery," DNB Working Papers 218, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2015. "Steigende Zusatzbeiträge in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung: Eintagsfliege oder Dauerbrenner?," Kiel Policy Brief 98, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2016 - Expansion hält Kurs [German Economy Summer 2016 - Expansion remains on track]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2015 - Aufschwung gewinnt wieder an Fahrt [German Economy Winter 2015 - The German economy is regaining momentum]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Seitz, Franz & Baumann, Ursel & Albuquerque, Bruno, 2015. "The information content of money and credit for US activity," Working Paper Series 1803, European Central Bank.
    4. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Paolo Guarda & Philippe Jeanfils, 2012. "Macro-financial linkages: Evidence from country-specific VARs," BCL working papers 71, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Christian Castro & Ángel Estrada & Jorge Martínez, 2016. "The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators," Working Papers 1601, Banco de España.
    8. Ari Aisen & Michael Franken, 2015. "Bank credit during the 2008 financial crisis: a cross-country comparison," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(1), pages 26-49, April.
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Greece: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/155, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten & Cavallero, Julian, 2019. "Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 81-96.
    12. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    13. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2016 - Deutsche Konjunktur auf Expansionskurs [German Economy Winter 2016 - Expansion is set to continue]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    15. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Iñaki Aldasoro & Robert Unger, 2017. "External financing and economic activity in the euro area - why are bank loans special?," BIS Working Papers 622, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft näher am Limit [German Economy Spring 2018 - German economy closer to its limit]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2019. "Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung: Pause beim Ausgabenanstieg durch Alterung," Kiel Policy Brief 121, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis," IMK Working Paper 98-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Stefan Behrendt, 2016. "Taking Stock - Credit Measures in Monetary Transmission," Jena Economics Research Papers 2016-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.