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Der Einfluss der Lohnspreizung und der Haushaltszusammensetzung auf die Lohnsteuereinnahmen

Author

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Göttert, Marcell
  • Jäger, Philipp
  • Jessen, Robin

Abstract

Die Autoren beobachten, dass es bei der Ableitung der Lohnsteuereinnahmen für das Folgejahr aus makroökonomischen Größen immer wieder zu merklichen Abweichungen kommt, die im Zusammenhang mit bedeutenden Änderungen im Steuerrecht und deren Quantifizierung besonders ausgeprägt sein können. Von diesen deutlichen Abweichungen abgesehen wird die Lohnsteuer durch die Ableitung aus makroökonomischen Größen in der Tendenz unterschätzt. Heterogenes Lohnwachstum erklärt nur einen geringen Teil der auf Basis des SOEP berechneten Ableitungsdifferenz. Aggregierte Fortschreibungen auf Basis der Lohnsteuerstatistik legen nahe, dass Veränderungen in der Haushaltszusammensetzung bzw. in der Besetzung der Lohnsteuerklassen eine Unterschätzung der Lohnsteuereinnahmen anhand der Fortschreibung mit makroökonomischen Größen hervorgerufen haben dürfte.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Göttert, Marcell & Jäger, Philipp & Jessen, Robin, 2020. "Der Einfluss der Lohnspreizung und der Haushaltszusammensetzung auf die Lohnsteuereinnahmen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkbw:25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Boss, Achim & Boss, Alfred & Boss, Thomas, 2009. "Das Lohnsteueraufkommen in Deutschland: Erklärung und Prognose auf Basis der Lohnsteuerstatistik," Kiel Working Papers 1522, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kooths, Stefan & Laaser, Claus-Friedrich & Rosenschon, Astrid & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Finanzpolitik mit Weitblick ausrichten," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Jessen, Robin & Schmidt, Torsten & Christofzik, Désirée I. & Isaak, Niklas & Kirsch, Florian, 2023. "Inflation und kommunale Schuldentragfähigkeit. Projektbericht im Auftrag des Ministerium für Heimat, Kommunales, Bau und Digitalisierung des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 281078.

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    Keywords

    Steuerschätzung; Deutschland; Steuern; Mikrosimulation; Demografie; Tax Forecasting; Germany; Taxes; Microsimulation; Demographics;
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