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Fundamentals unknown: Momentum, mean-reversion and price-to-earnings trading in an artificial stock market

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  • Schasfoort, Joeri
  • Stockermans, Christopher

Abstract

The use of fundamentalist traders in the stock market models is problematic since fundamental values in the real world are unknown. Yet, in the literature to date, fundamentalists are often required to replicate key stylized facts. The authors present an agent-based model of the stock market in which the fundamental value of the asset is unknown. They start with a zero intelligence stock market model with a limit-order-book. Then, the authors add technical traders which switch between a simple momentum and mean reversion strategy depending on its relative profitability. Technical traders use the price to earnings ratio as a proxy for fundamentals. If price to earnings are either too high or too low, they sell or buy, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Schasfoort, Joeri & Stockermans, Christopher, 2017. "Fundamentals unknown: Momentum, mean-reversion and price-to-earnings trading in an artificial stock market," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-63, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201763
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    Cited by:

    1. Baumann, Michael Heinrich & Baumann, Michaela & Erler, Alexander, 2019. "Limitations of stabilizing effects of fundamentalists: Facing positive feedback traders," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-26.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent-based modelling; financial markets; technical and fundamental analysis; asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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