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Rapid credit growth and current account deficit as the leading determinants of financial crises

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  • Ganioğlu, Aytül

Abstract

In this study, the main purpose is to analyze the factors that stimulate the probability of financial crises. The period of analysis covers the years of 1970-2008, thereby including the impact of recent global financial crisis. The analysis aims to make a comparison for the developed and developing country financial crises separately. Panel logit estimation technique is used for the analysis which includes 24 developed and 26 developing countries, amounting to 50 countries as total. According to estimation results, current account deficit and credit expansion carry the risk of raising the probability of financial crises significantly both in advanced countries and developing countries. More specifically, credit expansions in developed countries and current account deficits in developing countries raise the probability of financial crises more strongly.

Suggested Citation

  • Ganioğlu, Aytül, 2013. "Rapid credit growth and current account deficit as the leading determinants of financial crises," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-35, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201335
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    1. Pinar Karahan & Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu, 2016. "Kredi Hacmi Ile Cari Acik Arasindaki Iliski: Turkiye Icin Dinamik Bir Analiz," EconWorld Working Papers 16007, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, revised Oct 2016.
    2. Pinar Karahan & Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu, 2016. "The Relationship between Credit Volume and Current Account Deficit: A Dynamic Analysis for Turkey," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 31-40, June.
    3. Guellil, Mohammed Seghir & Sari-Hassoun, Salah Eddine & Chica-Olmo, Jorge & Saraç, Mehmet, 2022. "What are the main factors driving behind the MENA countries current account deficit? A panel logit approach analysis [¿Cuáles son los principales factores que impulsan el déficit de cuenta corrient," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 33(1), pages 134-153, June.
    4. Seyma Caliskan Cavdar & Alev Dilek Aydin, 2015. "A Different Perspective for Current Account Deficit Issue on Some OECD Member Countries: A Binary Panel Logit Approach," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(3), pages 14-22, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; predictors of financial crisis; rapid credit expansion; current account deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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