IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ana/journl/v2y2016i1p31-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship between Credit Volume and Current Account Deficit: A Dynamic Analysis for Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Pinar Karahan

    (Anadolu University, Department of Economics)

  • Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu

    (Anadolu University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

One of Turkey’s most important macroeconomic problems is persistent current account deficit. Credit volume has been shown as one of the basic determinants of current account rate, especially after the global financial crisis in Turkish economy. The Central Bank of Turkey has begun to implement the policy to ensure financial stability by slowing down credit volume in response to current account deficit affected by rapid credit expansion after the global financial crisis of 2008. In this study, we investigated the relationship between credit volume and current account deficit covering the period of 2005:Q1- 2015:Q3 employing Bound test approach, ARDL model and Kalman filter method. Bound test results suggest the existence of co-integration relationship between current account deficit and credit volume. ARDL model results indicate that the credit volume is statistical significant and positively affects current account deficit in the short and long run. The results show that a 1 % increase in credit volume leads to nearly a 0.62 % increase in current account deficit. Kalman Filter method results indicate that the effect of credit volume on current account deficit increased after global financial crisis and started to decrease after 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinar Karahan & Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu, 2016. "The Relationship between Credit Volume and Current Account Deficit: A Dynamic Analysis for Turkey," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 31-40, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ana:journl:v:2:y:2016:i:1:p:31-40
    DOI: 10.22440/EconWorld.J.2016.2.1.PK.0019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journal.econworld.org/index.php/econworld/article/download/19/10
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22440/EconWorld.J.2016.2.1.PK.0019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Real estate valuation, current account and credit growth patterns, before and after the 2008–9 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 249-270.
    3. Zeynel Harun Aliogullari & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Yunus Emrah Bulut & Mustafa Kilinc, 2015. "Turkiye’de Tuketici ve Ticari Kredilerin Cari Acikla Iliskisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1519, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Karagol, Erdal & Erbaykal, Erman & Ertugrul, Hasan Murat, 2007. "Türki̇ye’De Ekonomi̇k Büyüme İle Elektri̇k Tüketi̇mi̇ İli̇şki̇si̇: Sinir Testi̇ Yaklaşimi [Economic Growth And Electricity Consumption In Turkey: A Bound Test Approach]," MPRA Paper 100150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fatih MANGIR & Hasan Murat ERTUĞRUL, 2012. "Sermaye hareketliliği, tasarruf ve yatırım ilişkisi:Türkiye örneği," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(317), pages 61-87.
    6. Ismet Gocer & Mehmet Mercan & Osman Peker, 2013. "Kredi Hacmi Artisinin cari Acýga Etkisi: Coklu Yapisal Kirilmali Esbutunlesme Analizi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, May.
    7. Ganioğlu, Aytül, 2013. "Rapid credit growth and current account deficit as the leading determinants of financial crises," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-35, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Yusuf Ekrem Akbas & Mehmet Senturk & Canan Sancar, 2013. "Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 791-812, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pinar Karahan & Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu, 2016. "Kredi Hacmi Ile Cari Acik Arasindaki Iliski: Turkiye Icin Dinamik Bir Analiz," EconWorld Working Papers 16007, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, revised Oct 2016.
    2. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 605-634, February.
    3. Ziramba, Emmanuel, 2008. "The demand for residential electricity in South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3460-3466, September.
    4. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.
    5. Res. Ass. Dr. Mahmut ZORTUK, 2007. "Kosulluluk Araci Olma Baglaminda Kisa Vadeli Faiz Oranlarinin Hedeflenen Enflasyondan Sapmada Kullanimi: Bounds Test Yaklasimi (Türkiye Örnegi)," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 6(1), pages 41-68, December.
    6. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    7. Baharom, A.H. & Habibullah, M.S., 2008. "Crime and Income Inequality: The Case of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 11871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "Does Military Expenditure Determine Fiji'S Exploding Debt Levels?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 77-87.
    9. Renuka Mahadevan & John Asafu‐Adjaye, 2010. "The Implications Of European Union Sugar Price Cuts, Economic Partnership Agreement, And Development Aid For Fiji," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(1), pages 52-64, January.
    10. Chen, Qiuyu & Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2021. "Housing prices and trade surpluses in China: An inter-temporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. William Barcelona & Nathan Converse & Anna Wong, 2021. "U.S. Housing as a Global Safe Asset: Evidence from China Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1332, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Demet Beton Kalmaz, 2020. "Ongoing Debate Between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Wavelet Analysis," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2032-2051, September.
    13. Ceyhun Haydaroglu, 2015. "The Relationship between Property Rights and Economic Growth: an Analysis of OECD and EU Countries," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 4, pages 217-239, December.
    14. Narayan, Seema, 2013. "A structural VAR model of the Fiji Islands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 238-244.
    15. Kayhan, Selim & Adiguzel, Uğur & Bayat, Tayfur & Lebe, Fuat, 2010. "Causality Relationship between Real GDP and Electricity Consumption in Romania (2001-2010)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 169-183, December.
    16. Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş & Fuat Lebe, 2016. "Current Account Deficit, Budget Deficit and Savings Gap: Is the Twin or Triplet Deficit Hypothesis Valid in G7 Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 271-286.
    17. Burlon, L. & Gerali, A. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2018. "Non-standard monetary policy, asset prices and macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 25-53.
    18. Prakash, Kushneel & Maiti, Dibyendu, 2016. "Does devaluation improve trade balance in small island economies? The case of Fiji," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 382-393.
    19. Pedro Gete, 2015. "Housing demands, savings gluts and current account dynamics," Globalization Institute Working Papers 221, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current Account Deficit; Credit Volume; Kalman Filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ana:journl:v:2:y:2016:i:1:p:31-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Unal Tongur (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ewanatr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.