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Die Bedeutung von Sonderfaktoren für die deutsche Konjunktur: Eine Analyse anhand synthetischer Doppelgänger

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  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

Die konjunkturelle Grundtendenz in Deutschland wurde im vergangenen Jahr durch mehrere Sondereffekte überlagert. So führte der Übergang auf den neuen WLTP-Standard ab Sommer 2018 zu einer gedrosselten Fahrzeugproduktion. Zudem schränkten außergewöhnlich niedrige Pegelstände des Rheins die Binnenschifffahrt ein, wodurch es zu Produktionsstörungen kam. Im vierten Quartal kam es darüber hinaus zu einem Produktionseinbruch in der Pharmaindustrie, der offenbar ebenfalls Sonderfaktoren und weniger einer allgemeinen konjunkturellen Abkühlung geschuldet war. Im Folgenden wird anhand der sogenannten synthetischen Kontrollmethode versucht, den Einfluss all solcher Faktoren, die vornehmlich die deutsche Konjunktur beeinflusst haben, genauer zu quantifizieren.

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  • Ademmer, Martin & Jannsen, Nils, 2019. "Die Bedeutung von Sonderfaktoren für die deutsche Konjunktur: Eine Analyse anhand synthetischer Doppelgänger," Kiel Insight 2019.3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:20193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
    2. Ademmer, Martin & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia, 2018. "Zum Einfluss des Niedrigwassers auf die Konjunktur," Kiel Insight 2018.17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    4. Nils Jannsen & Manuel Kallweit, 2018. "Auswirkungen des neuen WLTP-Prüfverfahrens [Effects of the new WLTP test procedure]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 98(11), pages 831-832, November.
    5. Martin Ademmer & Nils Jannsen & Stefan Kooths & Saskia Mösle, 2019. "Niedrigwasser bremst Produktion [Low tide slows production down]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(1), pages 79-80, January.
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    1. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Potjagailo, Galina, 2019. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2019 - Deutsche Konjunktur im Sinkflug [German Economy Summer 2019 - German economy falters]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 56, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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