IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/833.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Technology, risk and social policy. An empirical investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Guarascio, Dario
  • Sacchi, Stefano

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of exposure to technological risk in shaping social policy preferences, specifically on support for universal basic income and means-tested generalised minimum income. Evidence is provided for Italy, to exploit the availability of high-quality data, allowing measures of two dimensions of technological risk. Objective risk hinges upon the degree of substitutability of one's occupation by machines, while subjective risk concerns a worker's perception of their substitutability. We posit that exposure to technological risk induces individuals to ask for protection, and thus increases support for social policy. We test two hypotheses: first, that exposure to objective risk of replacement by machines is correlated with support for both safety nets; second, that such effect is increased by high perception of risk. On the whole, results confirm a strong relationship between exposure to technological risk and support for social safety nets, once objective risk is disentangled from subjective perceptions. However, we find that such relationship only holds for men, while it cannot be confirmed for women.

Suggested Citation

  • Guarascio, Dario & Sacchi, Stefano, 2021. "Technology, risk and social policy. An empirical investigation," GLO Discussion Paper Series 833, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:833
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/233603/1/GLO-DP-0833.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    2. David H. Autor & Michael J. Handel, 2013. "Putting Tasks to the Test: Human Capital, Job Tasks, and Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(S1), pages 59-96.
    3. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    4. Frank Levy, 2018. "Computers and populism: artificial intelligence, jobs, and politics in the near term," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 393-417.
    5. Parolin, Zachary & Siöland, Linus, 2019. "Support for a Universal Basic Income: A Demand-Capacity Paradox?," OSF Preprints fvh92, Center for Open Science.
    6. Rehm,Philipp, 2016. "Risk Inequality and Welfare States," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107518872, September.
    7. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    8. Stefano Sacchi & Dario Guarascio & Silvia Vannutelli, 2019. "Risk of technological unemployment and support for redistributive policies," Stato e mercato, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 125-156.
    9. Rehm,Philipp, 2016. "Risk Inequality and Welfare States," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107108165, September.
    10. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Cassandro & Marco Centra & Dario Guarascio & Piero Esposito, 2021. "What drives employment–unemployment transitions? Evidence from Italian task-based data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 1109-1147, October.
    2. David Weisstanner, 2022. "COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income [Attitudinal polarization towards the redistributive role of the state in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 41(1), pages 96-110.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    2. David J. Deming, 2017. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1593-1640.
    3. Armanda Cetrulo & Dario Guarascio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "Anatomy of the Italian occupational structure: concentrated power and distributed knowledge," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 29(6), pages 1345-1379.
    4. Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco, 2022. "Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2022. "Modelling artificial intelligence in economics," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-12.
    6. Songul Tolan & Annarosa Pesole & Fernando Martinez-Plumed & Enrique Fernandez-Macias & José Hernandez-Orallo & Emilia Gomez, 2020. "Measuring the Occupational Impact of AI: Tasks, Cognitive Abilities and AI Benchmarks," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2020-02, Joint Research Centre.
    7. Usabiaga, Carlos & Núñez, Fernando & Arendt, Lukasz & Gałecka-Burdziak, Ewa & Pater, Robert, 2022. "Skill requirements and labour polarisation: An association analysis based on Polish online job offers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Consoli, Davide & Marin, Giovanni & Rentocchini, Francesco & Vona, Francesco, 2023. "Routinization, within-occupation task changes and long-run employment dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
    9. Oussama Chemlal & Wafaa Benomar, 2024. "The Technological Impact on Employment in Spain between 2023 and 2035," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-30, April.
    10. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2019. "Digitalization and the Future of Work: Macroeconomic Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 12428, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Zhang, Xinchun & Sun, Murong & Liu, Jianxu & Xu, Aijia, 2024. "The nexus between industrial robot and employment in China: The effects of technology substitution and technology creation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    12. Azio Barani, 2021. "Innovazione tecnologica e lavoro: automazione, occupazione e impatti socio-economici," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(114), pages 51-79.
    13. Eckhardt Bode & Stephan Brunow & Ingrid Ott & Alina Sorgner, 2019. "Worker Personality: Another Skill Bias beyond Education in the Digital Age," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 254-294, November.
    14. Egana-delSol, Pablo & Bustelo, Monserrat & Ripani, Laura & Soler, Nicolas & Viollaz, Mariana, 2022. "Automation in Latin America: Are Women at Higher Risk of Losing Their Jobs?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    15. Rita K. Almeida & Ana M. Fernandes & Mariana Viollaz, 2017. "Does the Adoption of Complex Software Impact Employment Composition and the Skill Content of Occupations? Evidence from Chilean Firms," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0214, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    16. Genz, Sabrina & Schnabel, Claus, 2021. "Digging into the Digital Divide: Workers' Exposure to Digitalization and Its Consequences for Individual Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 14649, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Parteka, Aleksandra & Wolszczak-Derlacz, Joanna & Nikulin, Dagmara, 2024. "How digital technology affects working conditions in globally fragmented production chains: Evidence from Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    18. Stephany, Fabian & Teutloff, Ole, 2024. "What is the price of a skill? The value of complementarity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1).
    19. Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario & Sostero, Matteo, 2021. "Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    20. Innocenti, Stefania & Golin, Marta, 2022. "Human capital investment and perceived automation risks: Evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 27-41.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    technological change; routine occupations; social policy; generalised minimum income; universal basic income; safety nets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:833. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.