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Consumer Debt and Poverty: the Default Risk Gap

Author

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  • Bertoletti, Lucía
  • Borraz, Fernando
  • Sanroman, Graciela

Abstract

This paper examines the disparity in default risk between vulnerable and non-vulnerable populations in consumer lending. We merge an exhaustive registry of loans granted in the financial system with microdata on vulnerable individuals applying for social programs. We estimate the sources of this disparity and how loan and individual characteristics influence the probability of default. We find that vulnerable individuals have a higher risk than non-vulnerable individuals. However, this difference is reduced when individual debt characteristics, particularly the interest rate, are considered. Specifically, interest rates explain at least 30 percent of the risk gap. We also find that the default probabilities faced by lending firms are higher than those faced by banks, but we show that this effect is partly due to interest rate divergences. Our study underscores the importance of considering individual characteristics, loan characteristics, and interest rates when assessing default risk. While recognizing their limitations, these results suggest the need for policy interventions to promote financial inclusion, fair interest rate practices, and financial education, especially for vulnerable populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertoletti, Lucía & Borraz, Fernando & Sanroman, Graciela, 2024. "Consumer Debt and Poverty: the Default Risk Gap," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1439, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1439
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Will Dobbie & Andres Liberman & Daniel Paravisini & Vikram Pathania, 2021. "Measuring Bias in Consumer Lending [Loan Prospecting and the Loss of Soft Information]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2799-2832.
    2. Cecilia Olivieri & Romina Quagliotti & Graciela Sanroman, 2022. "Debit and credit card holdings: effects of the Uruguayan Financial Inclusion Law," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0422, Department of Economics - dECON.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer lending; default; interest rate; poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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