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The fade away of an initial bias in longitudinal surveys

Author

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  • Alho, Juha
  • Müller, Gerrit
  • Pflieger, Verena
  • Rendtel, Ulrich

Abstract

We propose a new view of initial nonresponse bias in longitudinal surveys. Under certain conditions, an initial bias may "fade-away" over consecutive waves. This effect is discussed in a Markovian framework. A general contraction theorem for time inhomogeneous Markov chains is presented. The result is that two chains with different starting distributions will eventually converge to equal state distributions. Two conditions are required: transition probabilities must be equal for respondents and nonrespondents, and attrition in later panel waves must not depend on the state of the individuals. The theory is applied to a German survey on social benefit recipience. Minor deviations from assumptions are shown to have only a negligible impact on the strength of the fade-away effect. Results from other European surveys indicate that the fade-away effect is present in them, as well. Extensions are pointed out.

Suggested Citation

  • Alho, Juha & Müller, Gerrit & Pflieger, Verena & Rendtel, Ulrich, 2017. "The fade away of an initial bias in longitudinal surveys," Discussion Papers 2017/25, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201725
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Trappmann, Mark & Beste, Jonas & Bethmann, Arne & Müller, Gerrit, 2013. "The PASS panel survey after six waves," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 46(4), pages 275-281.
    2. Biewen, Martin & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke & Waller, Marie, 2007. "Which Program for Whom? Evidence on the Comparative Effectiveness of Public Sponsored Training Programs in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 2885, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Mark Trappmann & Jonas Beste & Arne Bethmann & Gerrit Müller, 2013. "The PASS panel survey after six waves [Die PASS-Panelbefragung nach sechs Wellen]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 46(4), pages 275-281, December.
    4. Rendtel, Ulrich, 2015. "Is there a fade-away effect of initial nonresponse bias in EU-SILC?," Discussion Papers 2015/25, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Walter Krämer, 2019. "Interview mit Ulrich Rendtel," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 13(2), pages 179-187, September.

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    Keywords

    panel surveys; panel attrition; nonresponse bias; Markov chains; steady state distribution;
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