IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fubsbe/20167.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Soft budget constraints, European Central Banking and the financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Jäger, Jannik
  • Grigoriadis, Theocharis

Abstract

During the European financial crisis, the European Central Bank implemented a series of unconventional monetary policy measures. We argue that these unconventional monetary policy measures created soft budget constraints for the Eurozone countries by lowering their bond yield spreads. This hypothesis is tested using pooled OLS estimations and two different datasets: monetary policy event dummies and the purchase volumes of the Securities Markets Programme (SMP). We find significantly negative effects on bond yield spreads for both datasets, leading us to accept the hypothesis. The results are confirmed by robustness checks that directly estimate the effect of unconventional monetary policy on central government debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Jäger, Jannik & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2016. "Soft budget constraints, European Central Banking and the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 2016/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20167
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/130763/1/857758543.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashoka Mody & Damiano Sandri, 2012. "The eurozone crisis: how banks and sovereigns came to be joined at the hip [‘A pyrrhic victory? Bank bailouts and sovereign credit risk’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 199-230.
    2. Milojica Dakić, 2014. "Global Financial Crisis – Policy Response," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 3(1), pages 9-26.
    3. Simeon Djankov & Peter Murrell, 2002. "Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 739-792, September.
    4. Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall.
    5. Berglof, Erik & Roland, Gerard, 1998. "Soft Budget Constraints and Banking in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 18-40, March.
    6. Theocharis Grigoriadis, 2013. "Aid effectiveness and imperfect monitoring: EU development aid as Prisoner’s Dilemma," Rationality and Society, , vol. 25(4), pages 489-511, November.
    7. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Zohal Hessami, 2017. "Monetary integration, soft budget constraints, and the EMU sovereign debt crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 252-275, November.
    8. Kornai, J, 1979. "Resource-Constrained versus Demand-Constrained Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 801-819, July.
    9. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    10. János Kornai, 2014. "The soft budget constraint," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 64(supplemen), pages 25-79, November.
    11. J. Kornai & E. Maskin & G. Roland, 2004. "Understanding the Soft Budget Constraint," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 11.
    12. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    13. Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2015. "The ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have They Lowered Market Borrowing Costs for Banks and Governments?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 91-127, December.
    14. Giulia RIVOLTA, 2014. "An Event Study Analysis of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 2014-02, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    15. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
    16. Clas Wihlborg & Thomas D. Willett & Nan Zhang, 2010. "The Euro Crisis," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 11(4), pages 51-79, October.
    17. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "The euro crisis- ten roots, but fewer solutions," Policy Contributions 755, Bruegel.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    19. John B. Taylor, 2014. "Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Slow Recovery: A Ten-Year Perspective," Book Chapters, in: Martin Neil Baily & John B. Taylor (ed.), Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    20. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    21. Baskaran, Thushyanthan, 2012. "Soft budget constraints and strategic interactions in subnational borrowing: Evidence from the German States, 1975–2005," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 114-127.
    22. Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier & Simone Manganelli & Olivier Vergote, 2017. "A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 218-243.
    23. Qian, Yingyi & Roland, Gerard, 1998. "Federalism and the Soft Budget Constraint," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1143-1162, December.
    24. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Paul Atkinson & Se Hoon Lee, 2009. "The current financial crisis: Causes and policy issues," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(2), pages 1-21.
    25. Gerlach, Petra, 2013. "Euro area CDS spreads in the crisis: The role of open market operations and contagion," Papers WP449, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    26. Janet Mitchell, 2000. "Theories of Soft Budget Constraints and the Analysis of Banking Crises," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(1), pages 59-100, March.
    27. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times [Preventing deflation: Lessons from Japan’s experience in the 1990s]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 295-339.
    28. M. Dewatripont & E. Maskin, 1995. "Credit and Efficiency in Centralized and Decentralized Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(4), pages 541-555.
    29. John Taylor, 2014. "Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Slow Recovery: A 10-Year Perspective," Discussion Papers 13-026, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    30. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2011. "The Ongoing Euro Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 6-13.
    31. Ernesto Crivelli & Adam Leive & Mr. Thomas Stratmann, 2010. "Subnational Health Spending and Soft Budget Constraints in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/147, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Eser, Fabian & Schwaab, Bernd, 2016. "Evaluating the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures: Empirical evidence from the ECB׳s Securities Markets Programme," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 147-167.
    33. Ouarda Merrouche & Erlend Nier, 2010. "What Caused the Global Financial Crisis: Evidenceon the Drivers of Financial Imbalances 1999: 2007," IMF Working Papers 2010/265, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Juha Kilponen & Helinä Laakkonen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2015. "Sovereign Risk, European Crisis-Resolution Policies, and Bond Spreads," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 285-323, March.
    35. Sergey Sinelnikov & Pavel Kadochnikov & Ilya Trunin (ed.), 2006. "Fiscal Federalism in Russia: Soft Budget Constraints of Regional Governments," Books, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, edition 1, number 4.
    36. Per Pettersson-Lidbom, 2010. "Dynamic Commitment and the Soft Budget Constraint: An Empirical Test," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 154-179, August.
    37. Grigoriadis, Theocharis N., 2011. "Aid effectiveness and the soft budget constraint: EU development aid to the former Soviet Union," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 287-289, September.
    38. Mr. Samir Jahjah, 2000. "Inflation, Debt, and Default in a Monetary Union," IMF Working Papers 2000/179, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Niels C. Thygesen & Robert N. McCauley & Guonan Ma & William R. White & Jakob de Haan & Willem van den End & Jon Frost & Christiaan Pattipeilohy & Mostafa Tabbae & Ernest Gnan & Morten Balling & Paul , 2013. "50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume - 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 1 edited by Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jäger, Jannik & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2017. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy: Comparative evidence from crisis and non-crisis Euro-area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 21-43.
    2. János Kornai, 2014. "The soft budget constraint," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 64(supplemen), pages 25-79, November.
    3. Xiaohan Guo & Jianliang Ye & Wunhong Su & Deming Luo & Xiangrong Jin, 2022. "Do zombie firms crowd out healthy firms and slow their growth? Evidence from China," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(6), November.
    4. Bignebat, C. & Gouret, F., 2006. "Which Firms Have a Soft Loan ? Managers' Believes in a Cross-Country Survey in Transition Economies," Working Papers MoISA 200603, UMR MoISA : Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (social and nutritional sciences): CIHEAM-IAMM, CIRAD, INRAE, L'Institut Agro, Montpellier SupAgro, IRD - Montpellier, France.
    5. Kornai, János & Maskin, Eric & Roland, Gérard, 2022. "A puha költségvetési korlát - II [The soft budget constraint II]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 94-132.
    6. Vahabi, Mehrdad, 2003. "La contrainte budgétaire lâche et la théorie économique [Soft Budget Constraint and Economic Theory]," MPRA Paper 17651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kornai, János, 2014. "Bevezetés A puha költségvetési korlát című kötethez [Introduction to the author s volume entitled Soft Budget Constraint]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 845-897.
    8. Mehrdad Vahabi, 2001. "The Soft Budget Constraint: A Theoretical Clarification," Post-Print hal-00629160, HAL.
    9. J. Kornai & E. Maskin & G. Roland, 2004. "Understanding the Soft Budget Constraint," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 11.
    10. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Eurozone bond market dynamics, ECB monetary policy and financial stress," Working Papers hal-03458554, HAL.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/8vns9so6b9pnqfo7eebjgfann is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Manuel E. Lago & Santiago Lago-Peñas & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2024. "On the effects of intergovernmental grants: a survey," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 856-908, June.
    13. Rosta, Miklós, 2015. "Introduction of soft budget constraint to analyze public administration reforms. Some evidence from the Hungarian public administration reform," MPRA Paper 68473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kang, Fei & Hauge, Janice A. & Lu, Ting-Jie, 2012. "Competition and mobile network investment in China’s telecommunications industry," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 901-913.
    15. Carsten M. Stann & Theocharis N. Grigoriadis, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission to Russia and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(2), pages 303-353, June.
    16. Richhild Moessner, 2018. "Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(43), pages 4617-4631, September.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8vns9so6b9pnqfo7eebjgfann is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    19. Ernesto Crivelli, 2012. "Local Governments’ Fiscal Balance, Privatization, and Banking Sector Reform in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 2012/146, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    21. Akai, Nobuo & Sato, Motohiro, 2008. "Too big or too small? A synthetic view of the commitment problem of interregional transfers," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 551-559, November.
    22. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The role of ECB monetary policy and financial stress on Eurozone sovereign yields," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1189-1211, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    soft budget constraints; bond yield spreads; monetary policy events; securities markets programme; European Central Bank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • P17 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwfubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.