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Understanding the macroeconomic effects of public research: An application of a regression-microfounded CGE-model to the case of the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft in Germany

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  • Grant, Allan
  • Figus, Gioele
  • Schubert, Torben

Abstract

Estimating the economic returns to public science investments has been a key topic in economics. However, while in particular microeconomic approaches have been proposed, only a few studies have tried estimating the macroeconomic effects of public science investments. In this paper, we propose a micro-rooted macro-modelling framework, which combines the strength of an econo-metric causal identification of key effects with the power of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework, and provides additional economic structure of the estimates allowing us a fine-grained sectoral differentiation of all effects. Applying our approach to the German Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, the world's largest publicly funded organization for applied research, we show that macroeconomic returns are - irrespective of econometric specification - a high multitude of the original investment costs. In specific, the activities by the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft increase German GDP by 1.6% and employment by 437,000 jobs. Our CGE analysis further shows that the effects concentrate in chem-icals, pharmaceuticals, motor vehicles and machinery sectors. The substantial size of our estimated effects corroborate recent macroeconomic evidence on the social returns to innovation.

Suggested Citation

  • Grant, Allan & Figus, Gioele & Schubert, Torben, 2022. "Understanding the macroeconomic effects of public research: An application of a regression-microfounded CGE-model to the case of the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft in Germany," Discussion Papers "Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis" 72, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fisidp:72
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    Keywords

    macroeconomic Effects of public Research; Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft; Regression-microfounded CGE-model;
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