IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/esprep/191941.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Funding Conditions, Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Some U.S. Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Vassalli, Matilde
  • Trecroci, Carmine

Abstract

Funding liquidity, i.e., the ease with which firms, investors and consumers can obtain funding, is a key property of today's monetary transmission mechanism. We investigate empirically the role played by various measures of credit availability in shaping the dynamics of asset prices and the fluctuations of real activity in the US.We find that changes in funding conditions are more tightly associated with future asset valuations than with developments in key macroeconomic aggregates. Results also point to the presence of a positive feedback loop between asset valuations and credit availability. Finally, the response of equity and house prices to the easing of funding conditions is stronger following shocks to liquidity than after conventional interest-rate shocks. These novel results highlight potentially destabilizing properties of recent liquidity cycles and unconventional monetary policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Vassalli, Matilde & Trecroci, Carmine, 2013. "Funding Conditions, Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Some U.S. Evidence," EconStor Preprints 191941, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:191941
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/191941/1/TreVassRev.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    2. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    3. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 11-05, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    6. Carmine Trecroci & Juan Vega, 2002. "The information content of M3 for future inflation in the Euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(1), pages 22-53, March.
    7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    9. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    10. Acemoglu, Daron & Rogoff, Kenneth & Woodford, Michael (ed.), 2010. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226002095, July.
    11. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    13. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    14. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 339-366.
    15. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    16. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    17. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
    18. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    19. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    20. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Financial intermediation, asset prices, and macroeconomic dynamics," Staff Reports 422, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    22. White, Eugene N, 1990. "The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 67-83, Spring.
    23. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    24. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    25. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    26. Ilan Cooper, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2601-2633, July.
    27. Yamada, Hiroshi & Toda, Hiro Y., 1998. "Inference in possibly integrated vector autoregressive models: some finite sample evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 55-95, June.
    28. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2010. "Monetary policy and financial imbalances: facts and fiction [‘Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(63), pages 437-482.
    29. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    30. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Madsen, Jakob B. & Carrington, Sarah J., 2012. "Credit cycles and corporate investment: Direct tests using survey data on banks’ lending practices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 429-440.
    32. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Mr. Alasdair Scott & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts," IMF Working Papers 2009/252, International Monetary Fund.
    34. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
    3. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Istiak, Khandokar & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Risk, uncertainty, and leverage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-273.
    6. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    7. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
    9. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    10. Singh, Bhupal & Nadkarni, Avadhoot R., 2020. "Role of credit and monetary policy in determining asset prices: Evidence from emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Liu, Guanchun & He, Lei & Yue, Yiding & Wang, Jiying, 2014. "The linkage between insurance activity and banking credit: Some evidence from dynamic analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-265.
    12. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester & Lo Duca, Marco, 2015. "Monetary policy and risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 285-307.
    13. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    14. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    16. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    17. J. Scott Davis, 2010. "The adverse feedback loop and the effects of risk in both the real and financial sectors," Globalization Institute Working Papers 66, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2015. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 153-188, July.
    20. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Asset prices; Funding liquidity; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:191941. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.