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Monetary policy and financial imbalances: facts and fiction
[‘Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles’]

Author

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  • Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche
  • Stefan Gerlach

Abstract

Following the financial crisis, many have argued that monetary policy should lean against asset price increases and that deviations of credit and asset prices from trend can be used to capture financial imbalances. We study quarterly data spanning 1986–2008 for a sample of 18 countries and argue that such measures contain little information useful for forecasting the future economic conditions. This casts doubts on the leaning-against-the-wind view. We also argue that tightening monetary policy in response to such imbalances are likely to depress real growth substantially. That finding, however, is sensitive to the Lucas critique.— Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche and Stefan Gerlach

Suggested Citation

  • Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2010. "Monetary policy and financial imbalances: facts and fiction [‘Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(63), pages 437-482.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:25:y:2010:i:63:p:437-482.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2010.00249.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Kauko, Karlo, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 128-151.
    3. Vassalli, Matilde & Trecroci, Carmine, 2013. "Funding Conditions, Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Some U.S. Evidence," EconStor Preprints 191941, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    5. Gunther Tichy, 2011. "Why did policy ignore the harbingers of the crisis?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 107-130, February.
    6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Uhrin, Gábor B. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2016. "Monetary policy shocks, set-identifying restrictions, and asset prices: A benchmarking approach for analyzing set-identified models," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 295, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    8. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2012. "Macroeconomic Stability, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy Rules," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 205-224, June.
    9. Josef Bajzik & Jan Janku & Simona Malovana & Klara Moravcova & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2023. "Monetary Policy Has a Long-Lasting Impact on Credit: Evidence from 91 VAR Studies," Working Papers 2023/19, Czech National Bank.
    10. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    11. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Benjamin Beckers, 2015. "The Real-Time Predictive Content of Asset Price Bubbles for Macro Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1496, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Philip R. Lane, 2015. "Macro-Financial Stability under EMU," Trinity Economics Papers tep0615, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    14. Fischbacher, Urs & Hens, Thorsten & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2013. "The impact of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2104-2122.
    15. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    16. Philip R. Lane, 2011. "External Imbalances and Macroeconomic Policy in New Zealand," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp376, IIIS.
    17. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    18. Philip Lane, 2010. "Some Lessons for Fiscal Policy from the Financial Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp334, IIIS.
    19. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "External imbalances and macroeconomic policy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 53-70, April.
    20. Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech Approach," Working Papers IES 2017/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2017.
    21. Carla Soares & Isabel Gameiro & João Sousa, 2011. "Monetary policy and financial stability: an open debate," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    22. Tomas Havranek & Mojmir Hampl, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech National Bank's Approach," Research and Policy Notes 2017/01, Czech National Bank.
    23. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    24. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik, 2020. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices - How Strong is the Transmission?," Working Papers 2020/14, Czech National Bank.

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