IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/esprep/170681.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting the Success Rate of Reward Based Crowdfunding Projects

Author

Listed:
  • Elenchev, Ivelin
  • Vasilev, Aleksandar

Abstract

The present paper develops three models that help predict the success rate and attainable investment levels of online crowdfunding ventures. This is done by applying standard economic theory and machine learning techniques from computer science to the novel sector of on-line crowd-based micro- financing. In contrast with previous research in the area, this paper analyzes transaction-level data in addition to information about completed crowdfunding projects. This provides an unique perspective in the ways crowd finance ventures develop. The models reach an average of 83% accuracy in predicting the outcome of a crowdfunding campaign at any point throughout its duration. These ndings prove that a number of product and project specifi c parameters are indicative of the success of the venture. Subsequently, the paper provides guidance to capital seekers and investors on the basis of these criteria, and allows participants in the crowdfunding marketplace to make more rational decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Elenchev, Ivelin & Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2017. "Forecasting the Success Rate of Reward Based Crowdfunding Projects," EconStor Preprints 170681, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:170681
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Parker, Simon C., 2014. "Crowdfunding, cascades and informed investors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 432-435.
    2. Belleflamme, Paul & Omrani, Nessrine & Peitz, Martin, 2015. "The economics of crowdfunding platforms," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 11-28.
    3. Gilles Chemla & Katrin Tinn, 2020. "Learning Through Crowdfunding," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1783-1801, May.
    4. Roland Strausz, 2017. "A Theory of Crowdfunding: A Mechanism Design Approach with Demand Uncertainty and Moral Hazard," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1430-1476, June.
    5. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "The risk and return of venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-52, January.
    6. Ellman, Matthew & Hurkens, Sjaak, 2019. "Optimal crowdfunding design," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    7. Blaseg, Daniel & Koetter, Michael, 2015. "Friend or Foe? Crowdfunding Versus Credit when Banks are Stressed," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    8. Ming Hu & Xi Li & Mengze Shi, 2015. "Product and Pricing Decisions in Crowdfunding," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 331-345, May.
    9. Chen, Ning & Ghosh, Arpita & Lambert, Nicolas S., 2014. "Auctions for social lending: A theoretical analysis," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 367-391.
    10. Maria Lucia Passador, 2015. "Crowdfunding: among Suitability and Appropriateness Rules and its Applicability to Capital Increase Operations," Banca Impresa Società, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 287-332.
    11. BELLEFLAMME, Paul & LAMBERT, Thomas & SCHWIENBACHER, Armin, 2011. "Crowdfunding: tapping the right crowd," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011032, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    12. Mingfeng Lin & Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala & Siva Viswanathan, 2013. "Judging Borrowers by the Company They Keep: Friendship Networks and Information Asymmetry in Online Peer-to-Peer Lending," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 17-35, August.
    13. Paolo Crosetto & Tobias Regner, 2014. "Crowdfunding: Determinants of success and funding dynamics," Jena Economics Research Papers 2014-035, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    14. Moleskis, Melina & Canela, Miguel Ángel, 2016. "Crowdfunding Success: The Case Of Kiva.Org," IESE Research Papers D/1137, IESE Business School.
    15. Gordon Burtch & Anindya Ghose & Sunil Wattal, 2013. "An Empirical Examination of the Antecedents and Consequences of Contribution Patterns in Crowd-Funded Markets," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 499-519, September.
    16. Rubinton, Brian J, 2011. "Crowdfunding: disintermediated investment banking," MPRA Paper 31649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Eleftheria Vasileiadou & Boukje Huijben & Rob Raven, 2014. "Crowdfunding niches? Exploring the potential of crowdfunding for financing renewable energy niches in the Netherlands," Working Papers 14-11, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies, revised Nov 2014.
    18. Zhuoxin Li & Jason A. Duan, 2014. "Dynamic Strategies for Successful Online Crowdfunding," Working Papers 14-09, NET Institute.
    19. Bargain, Olivier & Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Vignolles, Alexandra, 2016. "Crowdfunding in Wine," Working Papers 234638, American Association of Wine Economists.
    20. Ajay K. Agrawal & Christian Catalini & Avi Goldfarb, 2011. "The Geography of Crowdfunding," NBER Working Papers 16820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Ryoba & Shaojian Qu & Yongyi Zhou, 2021. "Feature subset selection for predicting the success of crowdfunding project campaigns," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 31(3), pages 671-684, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Felipe, Israel José dos Santos & Mendes-Da-Silva, Wesley & Leal, Cristiana Cerqueira & Braun Santos, Danilo, 2022. "Reward crowdfunding campaigns: Time-to-success analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 214-228.
    2. Sha Zhou & Tao Ma & Zhengchi Liu, 2021. "Crowdfunding as a screener for collective investment," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 195-221, March.
    3. Viotto da Cruz, Jordana, 2018. "Beyond financing: crowdfunding as an informational mechanism," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 371-393.
    4. Boudreau, Kevin J. & Jeppesen, Lars Bo & Reichstein, Toke & Rullani, Francesco, 2021. "Crowdfunding as Donations to Entrepreneurial Firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    5. Xu, Shengshuo & Ling, Liuyi & Du, Shaofu & Liu, Lindong, 2023. "Crowdfunding or traditional mode? Strategy choices in product selling," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    6. Belleflamme, Paul & Omrani, Nessrine & Peitz, Martin, 2015. "The economics of crowdfunding platforms," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 11-28.
    7. Chu, Tiankuo & Wei, Xu & Zhou, Yimin, 2021. "The pricing and efficiency of pre-Sale crowdfunding," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    8. Xu, Yang & Zhou, Qiang & Wang, Xu, 2023. "Joint price and quality optimization strategy in crowdfunding campaign," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    9. Matthew Ellman & Michele Fabi, 2022. "A Theory of Crowdfunding Dynamics," Working Papers 1349, Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Hans Peter Grüner & Christoph Siemroth, 2019. "Crowdfunding, Efficiency, and Inequality," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1393-1427.
    11. Ellman, Matthew & Hurkens, Sjaak, 2019. "Optimal crowdfunding design," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    12. Hossain Mokter & Oparaocha Gospel Onyema, 2017. "Crowdfunding: Motives, Definitions, Typology and Ethical Challenges," Entrepreneurship Research Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, April.
    13. Eric Tassel, 2023. "Crowdfunding investors, intermediaries and risky entrepreneurs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1033-1050, March.
    14. Francisca Jiménez-Jiménez & Maria Virtudes Alba-Fernández & Cristina Martínez-Gómez, 2021. "Attracting the Right Crowd under Asymmetric Information: A Game Theory Application to Rewards-Based Crowdfunding," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-23, October.
    15. Gary Dushnitsky & Evila Piva & Cristina Rossi‐Lamastra, 2022. "Investigating the mix of strategic choices and performance of transaction platforms: Evidence from the crowdfunding setting," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 563-598, March.
    16. Messeni Petruzzelli, Antonio & Natalicchio, Angelo & Panniello, Umberto & Roma, Paolo, 2019. "Understanding the crowdfunding phenomenon and its implications for sustainability," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 138-148.
    17. Crosetto, Paolo & Regner, Tobias, 2018. "It's never too late: Funding dynamics and self pledges in reward-based crowdfunding," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(8), pages 1463-1477.
    18. BELLEFLAMME Paul, & LAMBERT Thomas, & SCHWIENBACHER Armin,, 2019. "Crowdfunding dynamics," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2019014, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    19. Guillochon, Justine, 2022. "The role of media, policy and regional heterogeneity in renewable energy project crowdfunding," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Barbi, Massimiliano & Bigelli, Marco, 2017. "Crowdfunding practices in and outside the US," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    microfinance; entrepreneurial finance; crowdfunding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:170681. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.