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Understanding the Election Results in Portugal. A spatial econometrics point of view

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  • Caleiro, António
  • Guerreiro, Gertrudes

Abstract

The great majority of the theoretical analysis about electoral cycles has considered the national space as the territory of interest for the study of the economic consequences of an electoralist behaviour by the central government. This fact, in conjunction to the nature of the data most commonly available, has lead many authors to empirical studies which, by the use of more or less sophisticated econometric techniques, intend to verify the empirical evidence of electoral cycles whether in their political versions or in their partisan versions. Given that the election results for the main parties, at least for Portugal, clearly reflect some spatial localization we find rather intriguing to verify that so very few of those empirical studies use spatial econometrics techniques. This being said, the main objective of the paper is to analyse the results corresponding to the last legislative election that took place in Portugal, from the partisan viewpoint, by the use of well-known techniques of spatial econometrics. The confrontation of the results with the ones obtained ignoring the spatial localization of the data will lead us to the nature and extent of the improvement on the results obtained by spatial econometrics techniques in what concerns the detection of empirical evidence supporting the existence of a link between voters' ideology and the election results obtained by the two main parties in Portugal.

Suggested Citation

  • Caleiro, António & Guerreiro, Gertrudes, 2003. "Understanding the Election Results in Portugal. A spatial econometrics point of view," EconStor Preprints 142695, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:142695
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Donald J. Lacombe & James P. LeSage, 2018. "Use and interpretation of spatial autoregressive probit models," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 1-24, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Partisan Models; Portugal; Spatial Econometrics; Voters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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