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16 Gründe für schnelles Handeln: Kipppunkte und ihre Bedeutung für die Klimapolitik

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  • Huwe, Vera
  • Henze, Levi T.
  • Steitz, Janek

Abstract

Die jüngste klimawissenschaftliche Forschung zeigt, dass Kipppunkte im Erdsystem sehr viel näher sind als lange angenommen. Diese Revision hat weitreichende Folgen. In diesem Hintergrundpapier zeichnen wir den aktuellen wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnisstand über Kippelemente im Erdsystem knapp nach, diskutieren Wechselwirkungen mit gesellschaftlichen Risiken und leiten grundlegende Implikationen für die deutsche Klimapolitik - und auch unsere eigene Arbeit - ab. Im Erdsystem sind derzeit 16 biophysikalische Kippelemente identifiziert, die beim Überschreiten eines Schwellenwerts selbstständig in einen qualitativ anderen Zustand übergehen, was zu weitreichenden Auswirkungen auf das Erdsystem führt. Bei 1,5 êC wird erstmals das Kippen mehrerer Kippelemente wahrscheinlich. Oberhalb der Grenze von 1,5 êC steigt das Risiko von Kipppunkten stark an. Aufgrund möglicher Wechselwirkungen zwischen Kippelementen könnte es außerdem zu Kippkaskaden kommen. Da die bisher angekündigten politischen Maßnahmen mit dem Pariser Klimaabkommen nicht konform sind, besteht das Risiko, kritische Schwellenwerte bald zu überschreiten. Um das Risiko von Kippdynamiken zu minimieren, sind deutliche Emissionsminderungen bereits in diesem Jahrzehnt notwendig. Klimarisiken treffen auf Gesellschaften, die schon vulnerabel sind und die politische Antworten auf die Klimakrise finden müssen. Vulnerabilitäten oder unpassende Lösungsversuche können dazu führen, dass eine gesellschaftliche oder humanitäre Katastrophe eintritt, bevor Kipppunkte im Erdsystem überschritten werden. Auch gesellschaftliche Risiken können sich kaskadenartig entfalten. Um Emissionen bereits in dieser Dekade schnell zu senken, sollten erstens Maßnahmen künftig unter der Maßgabe der Effektivität ausgewählt werden. Zweitens müssen gesellschaftliche Vulnerabilitäten reduziert und Klimaanpassung ergänzend zu rascher Emissionsminderung gestärkt werden. Drittens sollte Deutschland internationale Klimaschutzkooperationen und Länder mit geringeren finanziellen Möglichkeiten weitreichender unterstützen.

Suggested Citation

  • Huwe, Vera & Henze, Levi T. & Steitz, Janek, 2023. "16 Gründe für schnelles Handeln: Kipppunkte und ihre Bedeutung für die Klimapolitik," Papers 277908, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dzimps:277908
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