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Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models

Author

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  • Giovanni Sgubin

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)
    Environnements et Paleoenvironnements Oceaniques et Continenteaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, Université de Bordeaux)

  • Didier Swingedouw

    (Environnements et Paleoenvironnements Oceaniques et Continenteaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, Université de Bordeaux)

  • Sybren Drijfhout

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
    National Oceanography Centre (NOC), University of Southampton)

  • Yannick Mary

    (Environnements et Paleoenvironnements Oceaniques et Continenteaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, Université de Bordeaux)

  • Amine Bennabi

    (Institut de Mecanique et d'Ingenierie (I2M), Université de Bordeaux)

Abstract

Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models’ varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Sgubin & Didier Swingedouw & Sybren Drijfhout & Yannick Mary & Amine Bennabi, 2017. "Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms14375
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14375
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    Cited by:

    1. Maya Ben-Yami & Vanessa Skiba & Sebastian Bathiany & Niklas Boers, 2023. "Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Beatriz Arellano-Nava & Paul R. Halloran & Chris A. Boulton & James Scourse & Paul G. Butler & David J. Reynolds & Timothy M. Lenton, 2022. "Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. V. Jomelli & D. Swingedouw & M. Vuille & V. Favier & B. Goehring & J. Shakun & R. Braucher & I. Schimmelpfennig & L. Menviel & A. Rabatel & L. C. P. Martin & P.-H. Blard & T. Condom & M. Lupker & M. C, 2022. "In-phase millennial-scale glacier changes in the tropics and North Atlantic regions during the Holocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Huwe, Vera & Henze, Levi T. & Steitz, Janek, 2023. "16 Gründe für schnelles Handeln: Kipppunkte und ihre Bedeutung für die Klimapolitik," Papers 277908, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    5. Simon L. L. Michel & Didier Swingedouw & Pablo Ortega & Guillaume Gastineau & Juliette Mignot & Gerard McCarthy & Myriam Khodri, 2022. "Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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