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Sekt oder Selters? Ökonomische Folgen der Reformzurückhaltung bei der Beendigung des Solidaritätszuschlags

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  • Strohner, Ludwig
  • Berger, Johannes
  • Thomas, Tobias

Abstract

Während der Sachverständigenrat die vollständige Abschaffung des Solidaritätszuschlags nach dem Auslaufen des Solidarpakts II empfiehlt, sieht der Koalitionsvertrag der Bundesregierung lediglich vor, die Einkommensteuer teilweise vom Zuschlag zu befreien. Die Simulationen beider Reformszenarien mit dem allgemeinen dynamischen Gleichgewichtsmodell PuMA zeigen, dass durch die Reformzurückhaltung erhebliche Wohlstandgewinne nicht realisiert würden. Im Vergleich fällt das BIP bereits kurzfristig um 0,2 Prozent (langfristig 0,3 Prozent) geringer aus. Damit verbunden ist eine um 35.000 Personen (langfristig 40.000) geringere Beschäftigung. Auch die Nettoeinkommen privater Haushalte würden weniger kräftig steigen. Der Selbstfinanzierungsgrad der Reformen würde kurzfristig in beiden Szenarien 40 Prozent (langfristig 50 Prozent) ausmachen. Effektiv würden demnach die im Koalitionsvertrag veranschlagten 10 Mrd. Euro zur Finanzierung einer vollständigen Abschaffung des Solidaritätszuschlags ausreichen. Das und die gegenwärtigen Überschüsse zeigen, dass eine vollständige Abschaffung des Solidaritätszuschlags möglich wäre, ohne die Solidität der öffentlichen Finanzen zu gefährden.

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  • Strohner, Ludwig & Berger, Johannes & Thomas, Tobias, 2018. "Sekt oder Selters? Ökonomische Folgen der Reformzurückhaltung bei der Beendigung des Solidaritätszuschlags," DICE Ordnungspolitische Perspektiven 98, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:diceop:98
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Solidaritätszuschlag; Reformzurückhaltung; CGE Modelle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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