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Abused rebels and winning coalitions: Regime change under the pressure of rebellions

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  • Apolte, Thomas

Abstract

We hypothesize that, in certain regime types, winning coalitions have an incentive for helping a deprived population solving the collective action problem that may otherwise restrain them in revolting against an incumbent. Recent selectorate literature holds that members of a winning coalition may find themselves in a loyalty trap after having realized a bad character of an incumbent. According to our hypothesis, the winning coalition's members can find a way out of the loyalty trap by influencing expectations within the population in a way as to spark a public rebellion. A thus induced rebellion raises the chance of each of the winning coalition's members for preserving their position in a newly formed winning coalition following a regime change. Hence, the very regime structure that makes a loyalty trap more probably is identical to a regime structure under which we should expect a higher vulnerability to public rebellions.

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  • Apolte, Thomas, 2015. "Abused rebels and winning coalitions: Regime change under the pressure of rebellions," CIW Discussion Papers 1/2015, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:12015
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    Cited by:

    1. Bettarelli Luca, 2017. "From Revolution to Elections. A Comparative Analysis of Tunisia and Egypt," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-12, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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