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Volatility, information feedback and market microstructure noise: A tale of two regimes

Author

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  • Andersen, Torben G.
  • Cebiroglu, Gökhan
  • Hautsch, Nikolaus

Abstract

We extend the classical "martingale-plus-noise" model for high-frequency prices by an error correction mechanism originating from prevailing mispricing. The speed of price reversal is a natural measure for informational efficiency. The strength of the price reversal relative to the signal-to-noise ratio determines the signs of the return serial correlation and the bias in standard realized variance estimates. We derive the model's properties and locally estimate it based on mid-quote returns of the NASDAQ 100 constituents. There is evidence of mildly persistent local regimes of positive and negative serial correlation, arising from lagged feedback effects and sluggish price adjustments. The model performance is decidedly superior to existing stylized microstructure models. Finally, we document intraday periodicities in the speed of price reversion and noise-to-signal ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, Torben G. & Cebiroglu, Gökhan & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2017. "Volatility, information feedback and market microstructure noise: A tale of two regimes," CFS Working Paper Series 569, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:569
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Clinet, Simon & Potiron, Yoann, 2019. "Testing if the market microstructure noise is fully explained by the informational content of some variables from the limit order book," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 289-337.
    2. Simon Clinet & Yoann Potiron, 2021. "Estimation for high-frequency data under parametric market microstructure noise," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 73(4), pages 649-669, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatility estimation; market microstructure noise; price reversal; momentum trading; contrarian trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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