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A structural approach to identify financial transmission in distinguished scenarios of crises

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  • Herwartz, Helmut
  • Roestel, Jan

Abstract

This paper investigates the propagation of instability through key asset markets of the US financial system - equity, real estate, banking and treasury - between 1/3/2000 and 12/26/2014. For this purpose, we develop an identification method to uncover characteristic financial market interrelations under distinguished scenarios of crises. It refers to the logic behind narrative sign restrictions and allows to extract time varying contemporaneous effects and volatility transmission from conventional reduced form volatility models with dynamic correlations. We find the market value of banking institutions to be highly sensitive to news originating in other markets, with those originating in the real estate market being most important. Under stress, in turn, the banking sector tends to dominate financial market (co)variation, where it exhibits a marked feedback relation with both the real estate and the equity market.

Suggested Citation

  • Herwartz, Helmut & Roestel, Jan, 2018. "A structural approach to identify financial transmission in distinguished scenarios of crises," Economics Working Papers 2018-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201808
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    Cited by:

    1. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut & Maxand, Simone, 2022. "Identification of structural multivariate GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 212-227.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Identification; Contemporaneous effects; Causality; Impulse response analysis; GARCH; Volatility transmission; Financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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